February 2012 NFL Events

Calendar of NFL Events for February 2012 brought to you by nationalsfootballleague.com

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NFL: Betting the NFL Draft
2010-04-22

The New Orleans Saints have been Super Bowl champions for two and half months and the time has come for their 31 competitors to replenish the resources with new faces, hopefully with some that can make a difference right out of college. That’s right, the NFL Draft has arrived and now ESPN and The NFL Network can send their armies of football gurus (66 at last count) into your living rooms for three days instead of two. The festivities kick off with the entire first round on Thursday night, and Sportsbook.com has an array of prop wagers available for you to partake in. Let's take a closer look at some of those.

Number of Quarter Backs taken in Round One

Over Two -650

Under Two +425

Only one way to bet this prop and that is the Over if at all. The St. Louis Rams made their intentions clear by releasing Marc Bulger and that Sam Bradford was their man. Jimmy Clausen in either headed to Oakland, Buffalo or San Francisco, with worst case scenario being Minnesota. That leaves Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy. Neither is projected to go this high, unless somebody sees Tebow as multi-faceted performer, which is a reach for the first round.

Number of Running Backs taken in Round One

Over 1.5 -380

Under 1.5 +290

C.J. Spiller is a lock in this round with his explosive speed and ability to catch the ball on wheel-routes and screens. The Houston Texans were disappointed in Steve Slaton last season and San Diego needs a dependable “every down” back. Ryan Mathews of Fresno State could fit one of their needs. Play the Over as easy winner.

Number of Wide Receivers and Tight Ends taken in Round One

Over 2.5 -140

Under 2.5 +100

Dez Bryant may have a few personality quirks but talent is what matters in the NFL and he should be first wide receiver taken. Demaryius Thomas is thought to have too much ability and Baltimore wouldn’t mind putting together a young pitch and catch combo with Joe Flacco. Unless there is an unknown issue concerning tight end Germaine Gresham from Oklahoma , Cincinnati or some other NFL team will take him as “best available player”. Bet the Over.

Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One

Over 6.5 -300

Under 6.5 +220

Within the first 20 selections, Trent Williams, Bryan Bulaga, Russell Okung, Bruce Campbell and Anthony Davis are presumed to be taken. Guard Mike Iupati of Idaho will fill a need in Green Bay, New York (Giants) or Pittsburgh, bringing the total to six. The means Charles Brown or Rodger Saffold, would have to be chosen and with the changes Dallas made to its roster, it is a sage bet they will take the seventh offensive linemen in the 2010 Draft. Remember, a lot of teams in the latter part of the first round will consider what happened earlier, take the Over.

Number of Defensive Tackles taken in Round One

Over 4.5 +160

Under 4.5 -200

It’s safe to assume Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy will go two and three in the draft barring a trade and Dan Williams and Jared Odrick will be first-rounders. That leaves Terrance (Mount) Cody as the wild card. Blogger-speak has San Diego thinking about Cody, seeking a replacement for Jamal Williams. If the Chargers are serious about the boom-or-bust Alabama product, they would be wiser to package their second pick (40th overall) to either Detroit or Tampa Bay who are presumed to have taken defensive tackles already and move down just a few slots and maybe get another pick from San Diego to help them. The Under looks like the right choice.

Number of Defensive Ends taken in Round One

Over Four -250

Under Four +190

Similar to the quarterback wager, we are working with an even number, making this a one-way wager. Derrick Morgan and Jason Pierre-Paul are foregone conclusions and if both are gone, Atlanta will take Everson Griffen from Michigan with their first choice. Beyond this trio, everyone else at this position is considered a reach, thus good value on the Under.

Jimmy Clausen - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 9.5 -115

Under 9.5 -115

Tough call on the former Golden Domer, with Buffalo probably the best fit for an Under play, however he could get killed like he did as a freshman in South Bend with the Bills O-Line. A small play on the Over, but it would be just like Oakland at No. 8 to pick the California raised QB.

Eric Berry - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 6.5 +140

Under 6.5 -180

Another challenging wager. Kansas City and Seattle will have to decide between Berry and an offensive lineman at five or six. The worst the Tennessee safety falls to is Cleveland at No. 7. Supporting the Under, with comparisons to Ed Reed fair and just too talented to pass up.

Russell Okung - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 4.5 +240

Under 4.5 -320

It’s either Okung or Trent Williams to help shore up offensive tackle position for Washington at No. 4 and will bet it is the former Okie State Cowboys that is taken. Bet Under.

Dez Bryant - What Will his Draft Pick Position Be

Over 11.5 -145

Under 11.5 +115

Could be wrong, but with Denver trading Brandon Marshall, they are planning on taking the much scrutinized Bryant or Demaryius Thomas with their 11th pick. If Eric Berry would fall to Cleveland, the Browns nab him; otherwise they will take Bryant, which the Broncos would prefer all things considered. Under is the winning side.

Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st

Ndamukong Suh -500

Gerald McCoy +350

McCoy got a few reporters excited listening to assistant coaches back in February, but once the dust settled Suh was the clear choice for Detroit.

Earl Thomas +120

Joe Haden -150

Going with the upset in this selection. Though Haden is cornerback, Thomas according to scouts is immediately prepared to make an impact at safety, possibly in Jacksonville.

Golden Tate +290

Demaryius Thomas -380

In terms of actual ability, Tate is more the polished product with better hands and a cleaner route runner. The difference is height, Thomas is 6’3 ½ and Tate is at 5’10 ½. Thomas earns the nod for that reason.

Eric Norwood +135

Jerry Hughes -170

This is almost stealing, Hughes is projected first round pick and Norwood is late second round at best.

Anthony Davis+170

Bryan Bulaga -220

This comes down to team opinions and needs. Davis is probably the better athlete and pass-blocker, however Bulaga is steadier, a better drive-blocker and graded out well in desire. Bulaga rings the bell as the winner.

Brian Price - Will he be Selected in the 1st Round

Yes -130

No –Even

Going against the grain and voting No, here’s why. Though Price is an elite interior pass rusher, he’s merely average against the run, this is where his instincts show up as ordinary. He has a good motor and doesn’t given up on plays when beaten and could eventually become a top line defensive tackle, with continued improvement. A chancy first rounder, but a solid pick in second round.

NFL Preseason Betting Tips
2009-08-07

The NFL Preseason gives sports bettors their first shot at getting back into to the game they are so passionate about. The SportsCenter highlights and countless team reports being blogged with up to the minute information has the football bettor foaming at the mouth to make their first game wagers of the season. Of course, Sportsbook.com will be your home for preseason wagering, including all the key information you need to make an educated wager.

Never mind the fact that most of the teams don’t truly care whether they win or lose in the preseason, it’s about getting ready for the regular season. With that thought in mind, nobody bets to lose, so like any other investment plan, it helps to have a strategy, do your homework, and be disciplined in your approach to betting the NFL preseason. This article is designed to map out a game plan of specific tactics that have been successful over the years.

Obviously the game is different in the preseason. The most important thing to always remember is NEVER handicap the games using regular season strategies. Often, preseason lines may be set by the public’s perception of a team’s chances for regular season, but this only serves to trap the uninformed bettor. Use statistics and trends that represent a team’s or coaches past preseason performances. Anything else is a mistake in my less than humble opinion. Our StatFox game match-ups and FoxSheets products will deal exclusively with preseason facts and figures. If you see statistics elsewhere that don’t employ this strategy, stop IMMEDIATELY, you’re better off flipping a coin! Once you’re comfortable with a place to get your stats and trends from, utilize these following general week-by-week strategies to build your bankroll for the NFL season, which will be here in a matter of time.

Pre-Preseason
Just like in the regular season, it is important to know your NFL teams. I am not talking about reading hours of information about every given team, rather to know the coaches and the tendencies of the teams. Coaching blunders and superior game plans can alter the outcomes of contests during the regular season. A missed tackle by the opposition or unexpected turnovers can change the final score, no matter what a coach does. In the preseason, a coach can directly impact the scoreboard by substitution patterns and what his goal is for the team beforehand. Throughout the internet or in many preseason publications, interesting fact-based cold data is available for you to learn from. For example, New Orleans is harrowing favorite at 11-22 ATS, yet is quite profitable 29-18 ATS as an underdog. Take a look at a team like Jacksonville who wears the underdog hat comfortably at 16-7-1 ATS.

Week 1 - Know your Coaches
This is extremely important if you have a desire to have extra money before the regular season starts. Be assured all the oddsmakers know these numbers also, it is your duty as well if you expect to profit. Coach Bill Belichick has always placed a strong emphasis on winning period. The Patriots are 21-13 ATS as favorites and 12-4 against the spread as home faves versus incoming teams with losing records. New England is 5-1 ATS the first week of preseason, as Belichick wants the hard work of training camp to pay off for the players as an immediate benefit.

Philadelphia’s Andy Reid is big on preparation when it counts and uses a different approach. The Eagles are 14-26 SU under Reid in the during exhibition encounters with 19-21 ATS record. What is noteworthy about following Philly is they have lost and failed to cover last five opening preseason games. Reid has used this time wisely to evaluate his large squad and is not bothered by the outcome. He in turn uses the loss as motivational tool and is 5-0 SU and ATS in week 2.

Another important factor is first year coaches. This year we have eight coaches that are taking over new teams and two others that were mid-season replacements running their first camps. Not one is a retread, meaning they all have to earn the players respect and vise-versa. After going through grueling training camps, each coach will want to prove to his players that the work has been worth the trouble. Nothing pays off like winning. Historically, these coaches can bring a nice profit. However, with so many coaches with new teams it would appear very difficult to make a profit because of the volume of games.

The potential path of least resistance would be to Play On first time head coaches (When not matched against other teams with same circumstance), coaching teams off bad season or seasons, when facing veteran or playoff teams. These new head masters will want to make a strong impression and establish credibility. Their job is to show the team who is boss, the direction is correct and the right players will be on board to make it happen. As baseball manager Casey Stengel once said “We’ll win soon, just not with these players.”

Oakland’s Tom Cable and San Francisco’s Mike Singletary started to set the wheels in motion as replacements last season, however will want to place a stamp on what they expect. Jim Mora Jr. and Jim Caldwell were part of succession planning at respective franchises and this makes their situation a tougher call.

Week 2 - Be ready to pounce
This is one of the two weeks you can really take advantage of the lines and make large profits with proper preparation. The most important factors this week are prior performance and motivation. These are largely tied together of which you can take advantage. I’ve already made mention of how Philadelphia fits into a week like this and Minnesota is another example for last season. The Vikings were awful in losing first game at home to Seattle, 34-17 as three-point favorites. After a week of Brad Childress cracking the whip, Minnesota was at Baltimore for next contest, which was off win over New England. The Vikes gave a much more focused performance and whipped the Ravens 23-15, catching a point.

Another example from 2008 was New Orleans, which fits the mold. The Saints started with a crisp 24-10 effort at Arizona, on the receiving end of a couple of points. They returned home maybe a little satisfied, maybe Sean Payton lightened the reins and with a total of 36 set, New Orleans lost a 31-27 shootout. With how long training camp is to the players, a coach can’t pound on them every day, thus all teams will have flat spots after solid efforts. Show me a coach that wants to go undefeated in August and I’ll show you a team with a losing record in early January.

This time around, be sure to watch for teams that may have put up less than admirable efforts in the first week, and grab those that you feel will be better motivated for week two outing.

Week 3 –Dress Rehearsal
Previously, the last week of the preseason was the time when teams played the starters at least two-thirds of the game, to give the coaches a real sense of where the team was and if they were on schedule. Because of the number of injuries that occur, Week 3 has become the important week to gauge each club’s progress. Many of the same principles still apply about motivation, with a few variations of note.

The coaches and players place additional importance on this week, thus giving a good showing does matter. In the preseason, situational handicapping has relevance, especially for teams losing by 10 or more points the week before. This is noteworthy, with back-ups playing and the games should be fairly evenly matched. Once again coaches will create further accountability through motivational and psychological tactics. The 2007 campaign ended in disappointment for Green Bay in the NFC title game against eventual Super Bowl champion the New York Giants. The Brett Favre circus was just leaving town last year and the coaching staff was desperate to establish Aaron Rodgers as quarterback, after losing first two preseason games. Mike McCarthy wanted excellence from his squad and they pulled off a 27-24 upset in Denver, who has traditionally been a very good preseason squad under now former coach Mike Shanahan.

How different situations can work to your advantage is maybe the coach feels the team is coming along too fast and wants to dial it back. We all know coaches are control freaks. Coaches want to build you up to tear you down and vise-versa. In the preseason, any coach loves to put the team thru strenuous practices after a weak effort. This is part of the other aspect of analyzing situations, teams off blow-out losses. The players are sick of training camp and played poorly. The coach runs them ragged and the players want the head-man off their backs, thus they respond in a positive manner and win and cover the next game.

Week 4 – Pick your spots and be ready for the regular season
The last week of the preseason is nothing more than final preparation for most teams trying only to avoid injury and making final cuts. Under Shanahan, Denver always was strong closer, having covered last nine this week, will it continue with new coach? Marvin Lewis is on 4-0 ATS run, with Houston 0-6 ATS and Washington one behind at 0-5 against the linemaker in Week 4. It is wise to be cautious in your plays the last week. If you are having a winning preseason, a game or two that you really are sure of is worth the risk to find a couple more winners. If you are having a mediocre or below average time in picking winners before the start of the season, save your money for what you care about most, the beginning of the start of the NFL regular season. This is what you have been looking forward to anyways.

Final Thoughts
Take the time to review the box scores in the preseason. Do not do this for traditional reasons as you might believe. Looking at stats and trying to figure out your fantasy team has nothing to do with the preseason games. What this is for is future reference and the next week’s opportunity to cash with productive results. Studying can lead to insights about any team’s depth or possible motivation based on outcome. Every NFL team is going to have injuries. By reviewing the box scores this time of year, you might find a team that has built up 17-0 or 20-3 leads with the first team players in two different games and ends up losing both contests in the 2nd half. This could well be a red flag that when this team has injuries during the 16-game season, the drop-off will be precipitous.

Don’t handicap the pre-season the same as the regular season. These are truly two completely different animals. Don’t over-analyze, keep it simple. If you are going to watch these games, focus on Week 3, when it matters more to a certain degree. Most importantly, have fun and enjoy the fact that you are that much closer to September 10th, the kickoff of the regular season.

NFL: Early Afternoon Games (1:00 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2008-09-19

The 1:00 PM ET board of games in the NFL offers eight different contests, meaning hundreds of different wagering opportunities at Sportsbook.com. The action is highlighted by a few key games: Carolina at Minnesota, Chicago at Tampa Bay, and Houston at Tennessee. There should be plenty of late breaking material for these games that you’ll need to keep track of, so be sure to stay tuned to the LIVE ODDS, BETTING TRENDS, and GAME MATCHUP pages. Here is a quick look at those three showcase contests.

(395) HOUSTON at (396) TENNESSEE
Houston got a rare early week of rest last week, at least as much as a postponed game can offer in the wake of Hurricane Ike. This Sunday, the Texans will get back to the field with an already crucial divisional road game at Tennessee. The Titans are 2-0 so far, and a loss in this game would put Houston a desperate 2-1/2 games back in the divisional standings. Unfortunately in ’07, all three of the Texans’ AFC South road games were SU & ATS losses, with an average margin of 17 PPG. Conversely, Tennessee has thrived in divisional contests, going 11-2 ATS in their L13 opportunities. HC Jeff Fisher’s team also owns a 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS mark in this series since 2005 and the OVER is on a strong run of 8-2 in the L10 games between these budding rivals.

(403) TAMPA BAY at (404) CHICAGO
Three weeks into’08, Chicago will be the final NFC team to play its home opener, welcoming Tampa Bay to town. The Bears have won three straight home openers but are just 4-8 ATS in their L12 as hosts overall. They are now 1-1 after giving up a 4th quarter lead and losing at Carolina. The Bucs are also 1-1 after a convincing home win vs. Atlanta. They are just 6-12 ATS in their L18 road games, however, one of those ATS wins was here in Chicago, a 34-31 loss in ‘06. Overall, the visiting team is 8-4 ATS in the L12 meeting of these former division foes. There are conflicting totals trends in play as well: Chicago is on a 19-6 OVER run vs. NFC foes, including 6-2 in the L8 at home. HC John Gruden’s Tampa teams are on a 15-7 UNDER run in September games.

(405) CAROLINA at (406) MINNESOTA
Both Carolina & Minnesota were involved in 4th quarter comeback games Sunday, winding up on opposite ends of the ledger. Carolina was triumphant in turning back Chicago at home to move to 2-0 for the first time since ’03, the last time they played in a Super Bowl. It was the second straight come-from-behind win for HC John Fox’s team. They’re in a good spot this week as well, playing as a 3-point road dog at Minnesota. Under Fox, the Panthers are 20-5 ATS as a road pup of a TD or less. The Vikings are off an 18-15 loss to Indy in which they surrendered a 15-0 lead. Already two games back, Minnesota is in a must-win scenario with a two-game road trip to follow this one. In this h2h series, the favorite is on a 3-0 SU & ATS run, and the UNDER is 5-1 in the L6.

NFL: Late afternoon starts (4:05 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
The late afternoon wagering card in the NFL is filled with six different games. The battle for bragging rights in the state of Pennsylvania between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia highlights the action. However, there are also key games in Denver and Indianapolis. Take a look at what’s in store and be sure to check the BETTING TRENDS page for where your betting colleagues at Sportsbook.com are sending their money.

(411) NEW ORLEANS at (412) DENVER
Denver is 2-0 after a pair of high scoring efforts in which they put 80 points on the board. QB Jay Cutler is off to a fantastic start, and his team is averaging a sterling 8.5 yards per pass attempt. The latest win was a big one too, 39-38 over San Diego this past Sunday, putting the Super Bowl favorite Chargers two games back. The Broncos’ opponent for Week 3 is New Orleans, another team with an elite quarterback of its own, Drew Brees. The Saints are just 1-1 though after last week’s setback in Washington. Denver comes in on a 2-6 ATS run vs. NFC foes. However, one of the areas in which HC Sean Payton’s New Orleans team has struggled is against AFC foes, also just 2-6 ATS in their L8 games. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their L5 games as road underdogs.

(413) PITTSBURGH at (414) PHILADELPHIA
Like elections, regular season meetings between Pittsburgh & Philadelphia occur just once every four years unfortunately. Both playoff caliber clubs in ’08, this should be one of the more intense meetings of the two in recent memory. The Steelers have started 2-0 for the third time in four seasons. They’ll come in to this game off of a non-cover in Cleveland, a game that dropped their recent ATS road record to 2-6 in their L8. Pittsburgh has had its way with the NFC recently, going 10-3 ATS in its L13. That does not bode well for HC Andy Reid’s Eagles, who are just 5-13 ATS at home vs. the AFC in his tenure. With Philly off the Monday night game and opening as a small favorite, note that the underdog in this h2h series is on a 4-0 SU & ATS run.

(415) JACKSONVILLE at (416) INDIANAPOLIS
Had Indianapolis not rallied from a 15-0 deficit to win at Minnesota, both they and Jacksonville would have been 0-2, already a couple games back in the AFC South Division, heading into their Week 3 matchup. For the Jaguars, it’s a must win, no if’s, and’s, or but’s about it. The problem is they are injury ravaged, their potent ground game has disappeared, and they are up against their most bitter rival. In fact, this rivalry has grown immensely in recent years, a closer series than won-lost records indicate, as the Colts may be 9-3 SU, but Jacksonville owns a 7-4-1 ATS edge in the L12 meetings. The visiting team is also on a 6-2-1 ATS run in the L9. HC Jack Del Rio’s team is 5-8 ATS in its L13 divisional contests, Indy is just 4-8 ATS in its L12.

NFL - Philadelphia at Dallas (4:15 PM ET – FOX)
2007-12-14

Dallas’ rally in the 4th quarter to win at Detroit may end up being the difference in going to a Super Bowl or not as it was able to maintain a full-game lead over Green Bay in the race for home field advantage in the NFC playoffs. It also gave the Cowboys the confidence in coming from behind.

On Sunday, they’ll certainly be expected to win and are playing as a 10-1/2 point home favorite against struggling Philadelphia. The Eagles have dropped three straight games to fall out of the playoff hunt. They have played well in Big D though, going 6-5 SU & 8-3 ATS in the L11 visits here. HC Andy Reid’s team is also 8-1 ATS in its L9 vs. teams outscoring opponents by over 10 PPG, and 20-8 ATS revenging a home loss. Dallas is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in division games in ’07.

A.J. Feeley may be providing exciting football for the fans in Philadelphia, but the backup QB is not producing wins and seems ill-equipped to formulate a true run for pride. There is little else to play for in the city of Brotherly Love as we move forward with a team struggling to keep the opposition off the scoreboard. The numbers show Philly carries a unit ranked among the top defensive units in the league, but scores allowed to the NFL elite in recent weeks prove this team out of sorts and should start looking towards the future.

The Cowboys have solidified their position as the best unit in the NFC and one of few from this side of the NFL universe capable of battling with the powers of the AFC. An offense as potent as any in the game continues to shine, but the defense has shows weakness against the pass. Getting their top defensive backfielders healthy, namely CB Anthony Henry, is key to the matches that lay in wait, but there is little reason to believe this unit won’t continue to shine.

Keys to the Game –This year was to be a continuance of the end of last season; unfortunately, uneven play and questionable decision making by the coaching staff has left only shattered dreams in Philly. The Eagles will try to earn back some respect being 20-8 ATS revenging a home loss against an opponent. The Philadelphia defense has been hit-and-miss and with Dallas riding high in the saddle and looking more menacing than J.R. Ewing, as they are 21-8 ATS in home games when they score 22 to 28 points.

Trends
~ Philadelphia is 12-1 ATS after playing the Giants.
~ Dallas is 3-8 ATS hosting Eagles since 1996.

StatFox Edge – Eagles cover