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Past Super Bowl Handicapping Trends & Stats by Steve Makinen
2010-02-03

Miami hosts this year’s Super Bowl XLIV matchup between New Orleans and Indianapolis, and being as how the Colts’ Super Bowl win in the same city three years ago was marred by quagmire-like conditions, a game that went under the total, it would be a wise move to check the forecasts on Sunday morning before hitting the confirm button on you wagers. Ironically, the pointspread for that game (Colts -6.5 over Bears) is similar to this year’s contest (Colts -5.5 over Saints), despite the fact that again, the NFC team boasts better all-around stats from the season. Does that mean we should expect a repeat of that game, or is New Orleans fully capable of pulling the upset? While we’re thinking of it, is there anything else from past Super Bowl action that can be used to handicap this year’s game? Let’s dig through the history of the Super Bowl and see what we can come up with.

Before beginning, one word of caution always has to accompany an article surrounding Super Bowl handicapping, and that is to remember that it is simply one game, the singular most wagered event in all of sports, and thus heavily weighted by oddsmakers to attract public action. How else could one explain that Indy is the favorite of 5.5-points, despite having a lesser scoring differential against a weaker schedule? Let’s face it, the line was initially set up at Indy -4 because of the “Peyton Manning Factor”, and has been bet upward since due to bettors’ fascination with him. Still, being as how it is just one game, I caution you to wager wisely, as no one game should outweigh a season’s worth of hard work or a springtime of gambling debt.

The Super Bowl game line is set up differently than one in the regular season, simply because of the vast number of amateurs partaking in the betting festivities for perhaps their only time all year. It’s kind of like going to church on Christmas, with the priest adjusting his message for the rare visitors. In the same way, oddsmakers adjust their line-setting policies. In other words, a “square” line typically becomes even more square. If you do a search on “NFL Power Ratings” currently, you’ll find that most sites indicate the line for this year’s game should be between Indy -2 and New Orleans -2. The current line is much higher. With so much money on the line for the Super Bowl, this may be the one game each year where the HOUSE truly is looking for balanced action rather than taking a side. That is the reason for the inflated line, but according to the BETTING TRENDS analysis on page 5, even the current line has yet to accomplish that goal. We’ll see how it plays out over the remainder of the week.

The other challenge that faces bettors is that the Super Bowl offers some variation from the normal handicapping routine. Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a sometime overwhelming task of handicapping. If you choose to wager on numerous different options, be prepared to find yourself conflicted near the end of the game. As always, it does pay off to do your homework.

Hopefully, with everything we’re offering for Sunday’s New Orleans-Indianapolis showdown, you will at least go into the betting process prepared. Part of that preparation should always involve looking at the history of the game. That is what I’m here to do now, as I look back at 43 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends, and systems you’ll need to make educated selections.

Super Bowl Stat Angles
Because of the extra week of preparation and the neutral field environment, neither team in a Super Bowl game will have any artificial advantages. Both are quality teams with exceptional coaching staffs, so they will be prepared to play. As was proven two years ago in the Giants mega-upset of the Patriots, there is no such thing as a physical mismatch in the Super Bowl. What I’m getting at is that winning games of this magnitude comes down to execution. Some teams might show up planning to pull a few gimmicks, but they won’t be able to do so for the full 60 minutes. The eventual winner is the team that best controls the line of scrimmage, makes the most big plays, and avoids catastrophic mistakes like turning the ball over. In past Super Bowls, the team that accomplished these goals has nearly always came out on top. Those familiar with the StatFox FoxSheets know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections.

Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that I like to use to determine their relationship to winning, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.

* Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-8 SU & 32-8-3 ATS (80%).
* Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 38-5 SU & 32-8-3 ATS (80%).
* In the 42 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just four times SU and six times ATS (85%). Amazingly, the last three times it happened straight up were the Steelers’ last three world championships.
* Teams that win the time of possession battle are 31-12 SU & 30-10-3 ATS (75%).
* Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 36-2 SU & 32-5-1 ATS (86%). In ’09, Arizona ran for more yards, turned the ball over fewer times, and possessed the ball longer than Pittsburgh to cover the pointspread, yet lost on the scoreboard.
* Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots.

Past Super Bowl Trends and Systems
Last year I cited the 2006 Super Bowl run by Pittsburgh as the game that dramatically changed the route to becoming a champion in the NFL. That was the first time a #6 seed emerged to win the Lombardi Trophy. Since then we have seen wildcard teams Indianapolis & the Giants win titles. In last year’s game, we had a team that won just nine games in the regular season come within seconds of winning the Super Bowl. While the Cardinals lost in heartbreaking fashion, they still managed to cover the pointspread, again defying all that we had come to learn about Super Bowl handicapping prior to ’06. This has naturally made it difficult on handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings, and past templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the playoffs. Well, thankfully, order has been restored to the NFL playoff system, as two #1 seeds will be playing for all the marbles on Sunday, for the first time in 16 years.

With that cautionary note out of the way, here are some historical Super Bowl trends, stats, and other tidbits that you can either use to handicap Sunday’s game, or at the very least, offer up at your parties to show off in front of game-watching friends. While on that subject, you can start off by “wow-ing” your company with this bit of interesting Super Bowl history: In the last nine Super Bowl games, there have been NINE different NFC representatives, but just four from the AFC. Enjoy the trends, where appropriate I will give the most recent game trend.

ATS and Money Line Trends
* Favorites in the Super Bowl are 30-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-19-3 (52.5%). However, over the past eight years, the underdog owns a 6-2 ATS (75.0%) edge. The only two favorites to win and cover in that span were Indy in ’07 and Pittsburgh in ’06.
* Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium. It doesn’t appear that this year’s line will reach that high, but be sure to follow throughout the week.
* The straight up winner is 34-6-3 ATS (85%) in the 43 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-3 ATS the past six years.
* The NFC holds a 22-21 SU and 22-18-3 (55%) ATS edge all time, and is on a 2-5 SU but 5-2 ATS run since Tampa Bay’s win over Oakland in ’03.
* #1 seeds from the NFC are on a 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS slide since 2001 in the Super Bowl.
* The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-11-2 ATS (8.3%) in the last 14 Super Bowl games! This would be our golden nugget except for the fact that both Indianapolis and New Orleans were #1 seeds out of their respective conferences.
* The team with the better record going in to the game is 28-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)
* Teams playing in their first Super Bowl against an experienced club are 5-2-1 ATS in their L8.
* In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.1 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.4 PPG, an average winning margin 14.7 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.
* There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…0-17 SU & ATS (0%).

Over/Under Trends
* The most important point to note about the total for this year’s Super Bowl, set at 56.5 at presstime, is the HIGHEST EVER in the history of the game.
* Overall, in the 25 Super Bowl games that have had totals, the OVER is 15-9-1.
* There have been 45.4 PPG scored in the Super Bowl on average, however, over the last five years, that figure is just 40.6. In fact, last year’s game snapped a string of four straight UNDER’s, and was the highest scoring Super Bowl since ’04, despite having the lowest total.
* The last five Super Bowl games that have had a posted total of 47 or higher have gone UNDER.
* The ’09 Super Bowl was one of only 10 in history that saw both teams reach the 20-point mark. All seven that had totals were OVER’s.
* The competiveness of the game has dictated the totals result historically. In the nine Super Bowl games that went UNDER the total, the average victory margin was 7.8 PPG. In the 15 OVER games, the average margin was a whopping 21.5 PPG. However, a caveat, the last two OVER games (’04 & ’09) were decided by 3 & 4 points.

NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
In continuation of the series I started a few weeks back, analyzing some statistical angles by round in the playoffs, here are some trends and the qualifying play for this Sunday’s game based upon teams’ stats headed into the big game. If the stat isn’t listed here, there wasn’t any significant trend forming.

* Teams with the edge against the line on the StatFox Outplay Factor Rating have lost four straight games against the spread.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The team with the better won-lost record headed into the Super Bowl is on a 4-9-2 ATS (31%) slide.
- Qualifiers for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS
* The team that averages more points per game offensively headed into the Super Bowl is just 1-8-1 ATS (10%) over the last decade.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The team that converts a better percentage of 3rd down attempts headed into the Super Bowl is just 2-7-1 ATS (20%) in the L10 years.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS
* The Super Bowl team that averages more yards per rushing attempt on offense is 9-5-2 ATS (64%) in the L16 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: On NEW ORLEANS
* The Super Bowl team that averages more yards per passing attempt on offense is just 4-8-2 ATS (64%) in the L14 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The team with the edge in offensive yards per point is on a 2-6 ATS (25%) slide in the L8 Super Bowl games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The team with the better turnover differential heading into the Super Bowl is 0-6 ATS (0%) over the L6 years.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The Super Bowl team that allows yards per rushing attempt on defense is 3-8-2 ATS (27%) in the L16 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS

If you were counting, that was five Against New Orleans, and four either Against Indianapolis or On the Saints. Is that a hint of what’s to come? Enjoy the action, and good luck from everyone at StatFox!

NFL: AFC-NFC Pro Bowl (6:20 PM ET, ESPN)
2010-01-29

The site of the 2010 Pro Bowl has changed, as it will be played at Sun Life Stadium in Miami, as opposed to Hawaii. The timing of the game has also changed, with it being played as a lead-up to the Super Bowl, rather than a follow-up. How does it figure to affect the contest, or the wagering on it? Let’s see if we can dissect it. In any case, the NFC is the 2.5-point favorite at last check, and 84% of bettors at Sportsbook.com apparently feel that is too low. The total is set at 57.

This will be the 40th version of the Pro Bowl, and interestingly, the NFL chose to mark the occasion with some experimentation. The changing of the date was done to promote the Super Bowl week, as opposed to the Pro Bowl being an afterthought it has been in the past.

The problem with the change in most people’s minds is that no members of the Colts or Saints, the league’s two best teams who will meet in Super Bowl XLIV, will be available to play. That fact cost the game 14 players, and the problem was only exacerbated later with regrets by 21 other players who were named to the Pro Bowl but declined due to injuries.

The site change is noteworthy for no other reason than this will be the first time in 31 years that the game will be somewhere other than Honolulu, HI. Not since the 1978 season has the game been played somewhere other than the 50th state, though the game is slated to return to Hawaii for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. It remains to be seen what type of panic might ensue if the elements come into play on Sunday and the field gets torn up for next week’s all-important game.

In terms of who will be manning the sidelines, San Diego head coach Norv Turner and Dallas head man Wade Phillips will guide the AFC and NFC squads. Phillips will be coaching in his first Pro Bowl, while Turner will be presiding over his second. Turner coached the AFC to a 42-30 loss following the 2007 season, when his Chargers lost to the Patriots in the AFC Championship. The two coaches met in the regular season, when San Diego pulled off a 20-17 upset of Dallas on December 13th.

The NFC leads the all-time Pro Bowl series by a 20-19 margin, including wins in the last two games.

The NFC was a 30-21 winner in last year's contest, with Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald earning MVP honors after catching five passes for 81 yards and two touchdowns in the triumph, parlaying his Super Bowl performance of seven catches for 127 yards and two TD’s.

Digging into the game a little bit, with the Saints' Drew Brees and Vikings' Brett Favre unavailable to play, the NFC offense will be guided by quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers of the Packers, Donovan McNabb (3553 passing yards, 22 TD, 10 INT) of the Eagles, and Tony Romo (4483 passing yards, 26 TD, 9 INT) of the Cowboys. Even with the two NFC title game combatants backing out, this is still a star-studded trio. Rodgers, who threw for 4,434 yards and 30 touchdowns against just seven interceptions while leading Green Bay to a playoff berth, will be making his first appearance in the game. The receiving corps will include the Eagles' DeSean Jackson (63 receptions, 9 TD) and Cowboys' Miles Austin (81 receptions, 11 TD), both of whom are expected to start, with the 49ers' Vernon Davis (78 receptions, 13 TD) getting the start at the tight end spot. The Vikings' Adrian Peterson (1383 rushing yards, 18 TD) is expected to open in the backfield one week after his fumble-laden performance in the NFC Championship. The offensive line will be led by Minnesota guard Steve Hutchinson, who makes his seventh consecutive Pro Bowl appearance.

The game will feature a “no-blitz” rule as always, meaning pressure on the passer will have to come from the down linemen. In this case, for the AFC, with would-be starting ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis of the Colts both unavailable due to their Super Bowl commitment, Mario Williams (38 tackles, 9 sacks) of the Texans and Kyle Vanden Bosch (44 tackles, 3 sacks) of the Titans will get the first crack at Rodgers and the NFC quarterbacks. Broncos outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil (41 tackles, 17 sacks), who led the NFL in sacks in 2009, will also be involved. On the back end, a star-studded secondary paced by perhaps the league's top three cornerbacks - the Jets' Darrelle Revis (49 tackles, 6 INT), Raiders' Nnamdi Asomugha (29 tackles, 1 INT) and Broncos' Champ Bailey (61 tackles, 3 INT) - along with starting strong safety Brian Dawkins (95 tackles, 2 INT) of Denver, will focus on slowing the NFC receivers.

Like the NFC, the AFC team will not be without its top QB’s, in this case, three of them. With Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady all unavailable on Sunday, the AFC will go with NFL passing yards leader Matt Schaub (4770 passing yards, 29 TD, 15 INT) of the Texans, with the Titans' Vince Young (1879 passing yards, 10 TD, 7 INT) and Jaguars' David Garrard (3597 passing yards, 15 TD, 10 INT) both backing him. Young will be appearing in his second Pro Bowl game, after making it as a rookie in 2006. Houston's Andre Johnson (101 receptions, 9 TD) and Denver's Brandon Marshall (101 rushing yards, 10 TD) will open at wideout for the AFC, with the Chargers' Antonio Gates (79 receptions, 8 TD) starting at tight end. Among the notable reserve pass-catchers is the Bengals' Chad Ochocinco (72 receptions, 9 TD), who makes his sixth Pro Bowl appearance. A standout AFC backfield will include NFL Offensive Player of the Year Chris Johnson (2006 rushing yards, 50 receptions, 16 TD) of the Titans, along with the diminutive Maurice-Jones Drew (1391 rushing yards, 53 receptions, 16 TD) of the Jaguars and Ray Rice (1339 rushing yards, 78 receptions, 8 TD) of the Ravens. Jets guard Alan Faneca and Titans center Kevin Mawae, who now have 17 Pro Bowl appearances between them, anchor the line.

The NFC will look to pressure the AFC quarterbacks with Vikings end Jared Allen (43 tackles, 14.5 sacks), Panthers end Julius Peppers (36 tackles, 10.5 sacks) and Cowboys outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (47 tackles, 11 sacks). Their defensive backfield features Asante Samuel (43 tackles, 9 INT) of the Eagles and Terence Newman (61 tackles 3 INT) of the Cowboys, in addition to safety Nick Collins (47 tackles, 6 INT) of the Packers. The linebackers are headed by 49ers middle man Patrick Willis (113 tackles, 3 INT), among others.

Prediction: On paper, you certainly have to like the QB rotation of the NFC much better than that of the AFC, with Rodgers, Romo, and McNabb all capable of lighting up the scoreboard. That said, the AFC defensive backfield is one of hall-of-fame credentials and certainly won’t make things easy. With the total set at 57 for this contest, we’ll go with a rare predcition of an UNDER in the game, with the NFC pulling it out 24-20.

NFL: Early Super Bowl Preview
2010-01-26

The Super Bowl matchup is set, with Indianapolis and New Orleans getting two weeks to prepare for their championship showdown in Miami. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have already weighed in on their thoughts, installing the Colts as 4-point opening line favorites. That number has since moved to 5.5-points, with Indy getting about 64% of the action according to the BETTING TRENDS page. Read on for a quick look at the backdrop surrounding Super Bowl XLIV and stick with Sportsbook.com from now till kickoff of the big game for more great coverage.

Peyton Manning survived an early knockout attempt by the Jets, guided the third-biggest comeback in AFC Championship Game history—11 points—and shredded Gang Green’s No. 1-ranked defense in the process. The NFL’s regular season Most Valuable Player threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-17 victory that ended far better than it started.

The Colts scored the game’s final 24 points and routinely made big plays against a New York defense that rarely allowed them through its first 18 games. Manning completed five throws of at least 20 yards and turned the tide with a four-play, 80-yard drive late in the second quarter that cut the 11-point deficit to just 17-13 at halftime. Head coach Rex Ryan’s team never recovered.

New Orleans proved to be equally resilient despite being dominated in almost every aspect of last Sunday’s NFC Championship Game by Minnesota, including total yards (475-257) and time of possession (36:49-27:56). The Saints squeaked by the Vikings, 31-28 in overtime, to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.

Along with Manning, Super Bowl XLIV also features the runner-up in the NFL MVP race, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees, who finished the regular season with 34 touchdowns and has added six more in two postseason victories. There are few differences between the two signal-callers, other than Manning’s overwhelming postseason experience. The Colts quarterback is now 3-2 in AFC title games (9-8 overall) and looks to win his second Super Bowl title in the last four seasons.

Regardless of who’s in the huddle, the two quarterbacks never lack confidence in flinging the ball around. Against the Jets, Manning’s top targets, Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, who each had at least 100 catches and 1,000 yards receiving during the regular season, combined for seven grabs and 90 yards. So, he turned to second-year wideout Pierre Garcon (11 catches, 151 yards, one touchdown) and rookie Austin Collie (7, 123, 1). Brees spread the ball around to eight different receivers, three of whom scored in the NFC title game.

The overall series between the teams is tied at 5-5, but the Colts have won the last two meetings, the most recent a 41-10 blowout in 2007.

PREDICTION
There’s no question Manning can keep up with Brees in a shootout. What is an issue is whether or not his defense can do enough to slow New Orleans down. The Colts knocked off a pair of run-oriented offenses (Ravens and Jets) in their first two playoff games, but the well-balanced Saints present a far bigger problem. NEW ORLEANS 38, INDIANAPOLIS 32

NFL: MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS (6:40 PM ET, FOX)
2010-01-22

For the 2010 NFC Championship Game, Brett Favre returns to the site of his biggest career win ever, hoping to put his new team in position to reach similar lofty heights. Favre won his only Super Bowl in New Orleans while with the Packers, and now, with Green bay’s biggest rival, the Vikings, can put himself in position to capture an improbable second title. The Saints are at home and favored by 3.5-points at Sportsbook.com though, and just as hungry as Minnesota to win a first ever NFL title. Betting action is split fairly evenly on the side, but nearly 75% of bettors expect this game to fly over the total of 53.

Favre was phenomenal in Sunday’s rout of Dallas, throwing a career playoff high four TD’s, adding to what has been a MVP-caliber season. Getting past this game won’t be easy though, as the league’s best offense awaits, with another prolific quarterback at the controls, Drew Brees, who’s Saints seemed to pick up where they left off about six weeks ago with a 45-14 win over Arizona in the Divisional Round.

New Orleans was installed as a 4.5-point favorite at opener for the contest, and is right where it wants to be, at home in front of what figures to be a raucous crowd. The Saints are 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS at home this season while scoring 33.2 PPG. Minnesota is just 4-4 SU & ATS on the road, but is also capable of putting up points, 29.2 PPG thus far. You have to figure Saints coach Sean Payton would love to get into a shootout though, as he is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. very good offensive teams scoring >=27 PPG as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. The average score in those games was NEW ORLEANS 40.5, OPPONENT 24.3.

This game of course, is unfamiliar territory for both franchises, as neither has ever won a Super Bowl, and the winner will get the chance to do so in two weeks. The Vikings haven’t been in the conference title game since the infamous loss to Atlanta at home in ’99. For as comfortable as he looked on Sunday at the Metrodome, Favre hasn’t won a road playoff game since the ’98 NFC title game. New Orleans is playing for a conference title for the second time ever (’07 loss at Chicago). The Vikings own a 4-0 SU & ATS edge in the head-to-head series since ’02, including a 30-27 win at the Superdonw in October ’08.

Here is StatFox Steve’s take on the NFC title tilt, straight from the Platinum Sheet…In my opinion, the NFC Championship Game comes down to whether or not the Saints offense is “back” from its late season struggles. Can the performance over Arizona’s inept defensive unit really be enough to springboard New Orleans on to Miami? The fact that the Saints are at home makes this answer a little easier, as the Superdome tends to make them faster and more comfortable. Can you believe how good Reggie Bush looked on Saturday? HC Sean Payton’s team averages 33.2 PPG at home and topped the 30-point plateau six times in nine contests as hosts. To me, that indicates that Minnesota is going to have to score at least 30 points itself to win this game. If you don’t think the Vikings can, then by all means you cannot play them against the spread, as if you read the article on pgs 4-5, you’ll see that hosts playing as favorites in the -3 to -9.5 line range in Conference Championship Round games are 13-8 SU & ATS since ’93. The straight up winner is 21-0 ATS in such games! In other words, for both of these contests, you may think getting some extra points might help you, but history has shown that the game winner will cover. With that in mind, I turn to a prolific Money Line FoxSheets Super Situation that will be in play for Sunday’s game: Play On - Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after a win by 28 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game. (31-1 since 1983.) (96.9%, +29.3 units. Rating = 5*). I don’t like the way Minnesota has transformed into a one-dimensional club, and with Brett Favre’s recent road playoff history, I don’t think he can keep up with Drew Brees here. Saints win, 34-20.

Play: Minnesota -3.5

NFL: NY JETS at INDIANAPOLIS (3:00 PM ET, CBS)
2010-01-22

Rex Ryan’s Jets’ team has gone from #5 seed to a step away from the Super Bowl by virtue of two road playoff wins. The only thing standing in the way now of his potentially prophetic prediction is a victory in Indianapolis. Certainly that is no small task, though New York accomplished that exact feat four weeks ago to end the Colts’ bid at a perfect season. Indianapolis of course, pulled many its starters in the second half of that game to the dismay of fans, bettors, and experts alike. In this week’s AFC title rematch, the Colts will play at full strength for the full 60 minutes, and are consequently listed as an 8-point favorite, and getting the backing of over 60% of bettors at Sportsbook.com.

The reason for the controversial move by HC Jim Caldwell was to get to this point with his team’s health and eventual goal intact, that being a trip to Miami and Super Bowl XLV. His club is the AFC’s #1 seed, and playing for the conference championship for the first time in three years, coincidentally, the last time they took home the Lombardi Trophy, also from Miami. The Colts, led by NFL MVP Peyton Manning, have been opened as 7.5-point favorites, but strangely for a 14-win club, haven’t been favored by more than a TD since November 8th. They are just 4-5 ATS at home this season and 8-14 ATS in their L22 as hosts. However, Indianapolis is on a 21-9 ATS run at home vs. good defensive teams yielding 17 PPG or fewer, and is facing a second straight playoff opponent who could be fatigued from consecutive weeks on the road.

The Jets are 7-3 SU & ATS on the road in ’09-10 and come in having won seven of their L8, both SU & ATS. During that stretch, the league’s top ranked rush offense has gained 182.6 YPG on the ground. Nobody believed Ryan a few weeks ago when he said the Jets should be favored to win Super Bowl XLIV, but maybe now it’s officially time to take notice.

The teams have split the last eight head-to-head meetings SU, with the Jets owning a 5-3 ATS edge since ’00. The most recent playoff meeting was in 2003, a 41-0 win by New York at home, a game that still stands as Manning’s worst playoff loss.

Here’s what StatFox’s Steve Makinen had to say about the AFC Title game in the Platinum Sheet…The AFC Championship offers an intriguing rematch of a Week 16 game which unfortunately can’t be used in any meaningful fashion to handicap the current game. Indy’s decision to rest starters in that contest after getting out to a halftime lead puts bettors in an awkward spot here. Obviously we all know that the Jets came back to win that game and haven’t lost since. Whetehr or not we can use the numerous revenge systems listed on FoxSheets remains up for debate. What we don know is this…the NFL’s top ranked defense, playing very well mind you, is squaring off against the league’s best quarterback. That in itself makes this a memorable matchup. Who has the edge though? In most cases, I would say the defense, but when that defense is accompanied by a rookie quarterback on the other side of the ball, I become a little more hesitant. I don’t believe the Jets are going to be able to play as conservatively as they did last week vs. the perennially playoff choking Chargers, although I believe that is how they will play. At points much earlier in the game, Mark Sanchez is going to have to make plays. Indy’s defense looked solid itself last week, is a playoff tested unit, and its stats are marred somewhat by the late season dive the team took. Take a look at the system: Play Under - Home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - solid team - outscoring opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 9 points or less last game. (29-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (78.4%, +20.2 units. Rating = 2*). When it’s all said and done, I am uncomfortable going with the short end of the QB mismatch in such a big game. I could see a 20-3 type of game like last week, or a 20-17 OT affair. Either way, I’d feel more comfortable putting my money on the total. UNDER.

Play: Jets-Colts UNDER 40.5

NFL: Can the Jets and Vikings win on the Money Line?
2010-01-21

Both New York and Minnesota are road underdogs in the Conference Championships on Sunday, yet each in their own way has proven to be a valuable play for the sports bettor. The postseason tournament has revisited yesteryear this season, as the two top seeds from each conference advanced to the conference titles games for the first time since 2004. However, if history has shown us anything, the higher seeded favorite not only fails to cover often in this round, but they lose outright. The last time two top seeds made it to the Super Bowl was the season of 1993. Since that time, on seven different occasions a matchup of the best from the NFC and AFC could have happened and not once did this occur. Betting on No.1 leaves a nasty mark at 5-9 against the spread, with seven outright losers, six from the AFC. This means bettors at Sportsbook.com could be in for a healthy return on investment in back one or both of the underdogs.

Confident New York rolling

The Jets are the bigger underdog at 7.5-points at Sportsbook.com and are +280 on the money line. Indianapolis has nobody to blame but itself for ending up with this opponent who really believes in itself. The Colts pulled many of the their top players against the Jets in Week 16 and New York stormed to a 26-6 second half, providing the momentum they needed to start winning. Make no mistake, coach Rex Ryan has this team believing they are every bit as good as the 85’ Bears and ‘00 Ravens, both defensive-oriented teams that won Super Bowls.

In analyzing the rosters of the two teams, take away Peyton Manning; a case could be made the Jets have a better starting roster. The Colts offensive line is merely average with Indy have no running game to speak of, saved by Manning’s ability to get rid the ball. No doubt Manning has the skill to pick apart any defense, but this is a unique Jets D, who creates relentless pressure from every angle imaginable and whose job this week is to make Manning miserable, leading to bad throws and possible picks.

The Jets are going to run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, as the duo, behind a talented offensive line, averages 4.5 yards per carry on 38 attempts per contest. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played smartly in recent weeks and his confidence has been growing, and he has been making better throws especially once the second half arrives.

NFL playoff football has evolved into getting hot at the right time. The Flyboys have won and covered seven of eight and aren’t worried about playing a third straight game on the road, the Giants and Steelers have won Super Bowls in the last four years doing so.

Strong defensive teams allowing 14-18 points per game, against teams that allow 18 to 23 points per contest, after allowing 17 points or less in three straight times, are 44-18 on the money line.

Minnesota is Favre-ulous

It was a little shocking to see New Orleans as four-point favorites over Minnesota, since the Vikings appear to have a decidedly better defense. That said the Vikings have not been nearly as good away from the Metrodome this season, with a .500 record SU and ATS and haven’t won or covered a road game since Nov. 1 in Green Bay (0-3).

It would be foolish to dismiss Minnesota since this team is right where many thought they would be dating back to the middle of October. Brett Favre has been amazing. Scrap the grayish beard and flecks on the dome, he looks every bit the player that went to consecutive Super Bowls in the mid-90’s. Gone are the days of just throwing it up for grabs, simply testing his arm and coaches patience, trying to play Mission Impossible plays.

While New Orleans has offensive weapons all over the field, the Minnesota crew is hardly second-rate. Receivers like Sidney Rice are explosive and rookie Percy Harvin is a ticking time bomb that could detonate at any time. The Vikings offensive line and Adrian Peterson have seen a number of different defensive schemes, all designed to stop A.P.; nonetheless they have to be encouraged with the Saints permitting 4.6 yards per carry.

The strength of Minny’s defense is not in the secondary, however if the Vikings defensive line plays the same as they did against Dallas, it won’t matter again. Minnesota has four legitimate run stoppers and pass rushers on every play. The affects of defensive pressure have been on display in eight playoff games and if they can shake up Drew Brees, the possibilities start to open up.

This is the moment Favre yearned for and no doubt wants retribution for the NFC title game failure while with Green Bay two years ago. Teams that average 7.3 or more yards per pass attempt, against average passing defense (5.9-6.7 YPPA), after gaining eight or more passing yards an attempt in two straight games, are 37-12 on the money line the last five seasons. At +160, the Vikes are worth serious consideration.

NFL: NY JETS vs. SAN DIEGO (4:30 PM ET, CBS)
2010-01-15

The NFL’s version of the “Final Four” will be set following the last playoff matchup of the weekend from San Diego, where the red-hot Chargers will entertain the almost-as-hot Jets. The hosts opened as 9-point favorites at Sportsbook.com, but cooler heads have since prevailed and the pointspread now reads San Diego -7. That price seems to have done its job of balancing the betting action, as the BETTING TRENDS page shows 51% of players supporting the favorites, and 49% on the side of the dogs.

The Jets won their playoff game at Cincinnati with the same recipe that has defined their season, controlling the offensive line of scrimmage and dominant defense. It will take that and more to pull a second straight upset at San Diego. The Chargers have won 11 straight games and no team is hotter, particularly offensively, as they scored 20 or more points in every game. The Jets were held below that mark on seven occasions, thus will be looking to keep the scoring down on Sunday. HC Norv Turner owns a 9-2 ATS mark as home chalk of 7.5-14 points in his stay at San Diego. New York is 6-3 SU & ATS on the road and last won in San Diego in the ’05 wildcard round, 20-17.

Of the four teams to earn a first-round bye in this year’s playoffs, it can be argued none is more deserving than San Diego. The Chargers, winners of four straight AFC West titles, take an 11-game win streak into Sunday’s divisional round playoff game against the New York Jets at Qualcomm Stadium.

Gang Green earned this cross-country trip with a 24-14 victory in Cincinnati, marking its second win over the Bengals in six days. Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez (12-for-15, 182 yards, one touchdown) and rookie running back Shonn Greene (135 yards rushing, one touchdown) starred for rookie head coach Rex Ryan, who praised the efforts of kicker/punter Jay Feely (one field goal, three extra points, three punts inside the 20) in his post-game news conference.

No disrespect to the Bengals, but the road for the Jets gets a lot tougher now.
Head coach Norv Turner’s team hasn’t been saddled with a loss since Oct. 19 when it came up short at home on Monday night against Denver and fell three-and-a-half games behind the Broncos. Six days later, the Chargers spanked Kansas City by 30 in Arrowhead and were well on their way.

San Diego is 3-3 in the playoffs over the last three seasons with an appearance in the AFC Championship Game two years ago and is as talented as any of the remaining clubs.
Is it time for Turner and Philip Rivers to get over the hump? There isn’t much more for Rivers to do except win a ring. Since taking the reins of San Diego’s offense from Drew Brees in 2006, he’s passed for an average of 3,700 yards per season with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 105-to-44. He’s facing a New York defense that ranked atop the league in passing yards (153.7 per game) and passing scores allowed (eight) and held Cincinnati to 110 net yards passing in the last two weeks.

The key matchups to watch are Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis against Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson and New York’s ground attack against San Diego’s shaky—20th-ranked—run defense. Jackson has a six-inch height advantage on Revis, but he sat out the regular-season finale against Washington with a sore Achilles’ and will have a tough time winning the duel at less than 100 percent.

PREDICTION: The Chargers scored at least 20 points in every regular-season game and averaged 30 during the current winning streak. Turner doesn’t have the best January resume, but there’s no debating which of these teams has more horses in the barn. Throw in some jetlag and Sanchez & Co. really have their work cut out.
SAN DIEGO 24, N.Y. JETS 13

NFL: DALLAS vs. MINNESOTA
2010-01-15

Earlier in the season, Minnesota arguably was the NFL’s best team. Many football experts are now saying that title belongs to Dallas. That makes for an interesting backdrop for the teams’ Sunday’s divisional playoff. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com installed the host Vikings as 3-point favorites, but early returns forced them to drop that to minus-2.5. Interestingly, the OVER 45.5 on this contest was getting the most support (82%) from bettors at presstime of any other Divisional Playoff betting option.

Minnesota, who hasn’t won a playoff game since ’04, finished 12-4 but was just 2-3 SU & ATS in the L5 games. However, the Vikings can boast about the fact that they were 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS at home while winning by 17.2 PPG. Dallas has won its L4 games while holding opponents to just 31 total points. The Cowboys, who snapped a 13-year playoff winless stretch last weekend, have been dominant in holding opponents to just 54.8 YPG rushing in the L5. Minnesota has taken five of the L6 h2h meetings between these teams SU & ATS, dating back to ’98.

The piano and the monkey, heck the gorilla, has been thrown off of Tony Romo’s back, as consecutive victories over Philadelphia have given Dallas not only the NFC East title, but also the franchise’s first playoff victory since 1996.

The Cowboys routed the Eagles, 34-14, last Saturday behind yet another dominating defensive performance that rattled Donovan McNabb and didn’t allow him to complete a pass until 1:50 was left in the second quarter. By that time, the Eagles already trailed by 17 points.

As much as Romo has been the catalyst on offense, throwing for 2,103 yards and 13 touchdowns against just two interceptions during his last seven games, the defense has played an even bigger role. On top of ending the regular season with back-to-back shutouts, Dallas’ four-game winning streak has been highlighted by 15 sacks and eight turnovers, and the defense has allowed a total of 201 yards rushing and 31 points.

Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson, among the best running backs in the NFL, has almost become an afterthought as the Vikings evolved into a pass-oriented team, failing to crack the 100-yard barrier in his last seven games and netting less than 15 carries in three of them.

The Minnesota defense hasn’t been quite so stout down the stretch, despite its lofty standing among the rest of the NFL teams. Ranked No. 6 overall, Minnesota’s defense stumbled during its 2-3 finish over the final five games, allowing Cedric Benson and Jonathan Stewart to run for 205 yards and a score on 41 carries; Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler, who led the NFL with 26 interceptions, threw a season-high four touchdowns in a Week 16 overtime win.

No current quarterback has as much playoff experience as Brett Favre, whose 22 career starts are just one behind Joe Montana. Despite the experience, however, the results haven’t been all glory. Favre has posted an overall mark of just 12-10 that includes losses in six of his last nine appearances.

The Cowboys and Vikings have met six times in the postseason, most recently in 1999, when Minnesota won 27-10 at home in the wild-card round. Dallas has won four of the six playoff battles overall.

PREDICTION: HC Brad Childress’ team is built for the postseason, and is capable of making a run to Miami. They run the ball and pass it equally effectively, have perhaps the best offensive line in football, and are able to get after the passer on defense. Don’t underestimate them by only looking too much at what Dallas has done the last four weeks. MINNESOTA 30, DALLAS 24