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Welcome to nationalsfootballleague.com, the place that provides up to date information for NFL gamblers.

This site was created with one goal in mind: assisting football gamblers with improving their handicapping skills.

Whether you are a casual gambler or a seasoned pro, by logging on daily throughout the football season, you will increase your profits during the football season.

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FOOTBALL BETTING FOR BODOG EUROPE
2009-06-04

European licensed Bodog brand will operate on Orbis sportsbetting software

With the resolution of the Bodog brand patents dispute last (April) month (see previous InfoPowa reports) the European licensed site at Bodoglife.co.uk is re-routing to the main international brand and gearing up for a busy European sportsbetting season.

Last month, md Keith McDonnell, hinted at the future direction of the brand when he said: "As the 'Bodog' brand licensee for Europe, we are ecstatic to see the return of http://www.bodog.com. Working with the Morris Mohawk Gaming Group and the other licensees, geo-targeting will be used to ensure visitors outside of the MMGG's (North American) territory are directed to the correct site, including ours (http://www.bodoglife.co.uk ). This way, the marketing efforts of every licensee to promote http://www.bodog.com benefit us all, ultimately reinforcing and strengthening the global brand. It will absolutely be a win-win-win solution."

McDonnell and his staff have been busy making the operation more suited to the European market by engaging with Orbis - which was brought in to sort out William Hill's troubled in-house software last year - on new software. The goal is to be fully geared up in terms of technology and content in good time for the strt of the 2009-2010 football season.

The company will be aligned with similarly licensed entities in Canada (MMGG) and the Phillipines (Haydock Sports) as reported previously in InfoPowa.

McDonnell acknowledges that Europe is a tough and highly competitive arena, but has said that his marketers will leverage associated sports tournaments like its Ultimate Fighting Championship to target different and in some cases new demographics.

NFL SELECTIVE ABOUT BETTING MORALITY?
2009-05-25

New moves may be lucrative, but dilute the moral positioning

One of online gambling's most implacable foes - the US National Football League - came under fire from Associated Press over the weekend for its latest moves to increase revenues for owners.

After years of moralising about the dangers to sport of allowing betting on games, the NFL is now allowing its team owners to position (for a cut of the action) team logos on state lottery scratch tickets despite boycott and legal threats directed at the governor of Delaware over his plans for a sports lottery (see previous InfoPowa reports).

The Patriots and the Redskins have been quick to jump into the new revenue stream, signing deals with the Massachusetts and Virginia state lotteries respectively.

The AP story comments that: "...the league that is so terrified of gambling that it refused to allow a Las Vegas commercial during the Super Bowl a few years back is now in the gambling business itself. Aware that it can sell only so many $300 tickets to its games, the NFL has figured out a way to get a cut of some of the biggest gambling operations around.

"No word yet on whether there will be [lottery] kiosks next to the beer stands at the stadiums, but that won't likely be far behind. The one thing the NFL does know how to do is promote its product."

The article considers the apparent hypocrisy of the League's position on the lottery logo projects following its opposition to the sports lottery in Delaware, which has been approved and signed off, and now awaits state Supreme Court guidance on what betting is permissible.

"That apparently crosses the line for the NFL, whose stance against betting on its games has always been a bit ironic considering gamblers helped found the league and the evolution of point spreads helped make it so wildly popular," the piece opines. "So attorneys for the League were in the courtroom the other day arguing before the Delaware Supreme Court that betting on NFL games should not be allowed.

"Their reasoning? Bettors might have too good a chance to win."

The Massachusetts State Lottery, where the Patriots tickets will be sold, already runs a Boston Red Sox game, which this year offers prizes of up to $1 million for 10 lucky buyers. The official odds show that one out of every 4.5 tickets is a winner. But odds of actually winning something over a player's original investment are more like one in eight because 10 percent of the payoffs merely refund the five dollar betting stake.

Associated Press sums up its report by commenting: "In the end, gambling is gambling. And now that the NFL is in the gambling business, it has lost its right to the moral high ground on the issue.

"Lotteries are the worst form of gambling imaginable. They prey on the weakest people and exploit their dreams.

"The next time the NFL screams about sports betting, remember who is sharing its bed."

NFL: Betting the NFL Draft (4:00 PM ET, ESPN)
2009-04-26

For professional football fans, weeks and months of speculation come to a head on Saturday. The first pick of the NFL draft is set for 4 PM ET, and from there folks can start truly getting ready for the next football season. Of course, the draft isn’t just about picking players. The recent development of betting opportunities available for certain players and/or picks has added to the intrigue. Read on as we review some of the options available at Sportsbook.com, offering some insight and opinions.

For fans of specific teams, you hope the general manager can fill the needs of your team and they can start improving right from day one. For many, this is the best kind of reality TV, as just when you believe will occur and the people paid to tell you what is going to happen, well faster than you can say “Brady Quinn” something out of the blue changes that would even throw off Heidi Montag. With this annual event going more prime time, the sports bettor can place wagers on a variety of options at various sportsbooks and have a little fun while sippin’ a few cold ones with friends.

The draft itself will hinge on two things that will happen early. At the moment, Detroit is trying to get deal done with Mathew Stafford. If for some reason that doesn’t work out, don’t be surprised if Lions take tackle Jason Smith and trade for quarterback Derrick Alexander of Cleveland setting of an unforeseen chain of events.

If the first three picks go as planned with Stafford, Smith and Aaron Curry, Seattle controls the board and whom they choose will have trickle affect on the next 15 to 20 picks. Please note, all plays are based on normal events, trades and other outside factors are beyond my control. All listed action is courtesy of Sportsbook.com.

Number of Quarterbacks taken in Round One

Over 2.5 (-350) - Under 2.5 (+225)

The safest play is Over with Stafford and Mark Sanchez a given, however I’m hearing rumblings Josh Freeman might be in free fall and have Aaron Rodgers and Quinn moment, possibly all the way to second round. Still hard to fathom he would fall that far in a draft not loaded with extraordinary talent early.

Number of Running Backs taken in Round One

Over 2.5 (+120) - Under 2.5 ( -160)

Knowshon Moreno and Chris Wells will be taken. The wild card is Donald Brown out of Connecticut. A number of the draft experts have his going to Arizona, but a Cardinals insider suggested to me defensive tackle or tight end is more important and they will look at finding this year’s Steve Slaton in round two. That’s enough to make me play Under.

Number of Wide Receivers and Tight Ends taken in Round One

Over 6 (-170) - Under 6 (+130)

This is a really tough call, since six seems to be the right number with Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Brandon Pettigrew, and Darrius Heyward-Bey all certain and Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt and Percy Harvin all liked by different teams on the back end of first round. I could put on chicken suit and pass, but I’ll say the latter three are all playmakers and this prop goes Over.

Number of Offensive Linemen taken in Round One

Over 6.5 (-105) – Under 6.5 (-135)

Playing the Under here and feel strongly this one is accurate. Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, Michael Oher, Andre Smith and Eben Britton are locks. A few reports have William Beatty well liked by Minnesota and Pittsburgh might draft a center to cause a defeat, however don’t see it happening and going with original feelings.

What will Michael Crabtree’s Draft Position be?

Over 7.5 (+200) – Under 7.5 (-300)

Crabtree is arguably the most NFL ready player and the last spot he should fall to is Oakland at seven. Play Under.

What will Andre Smith’s Draft Position be?

Over 6.5 (Even) – Under 6.5 (-130)

In December this was an easy answer and the Under would have -130 at 5.5. But because of several gaffes by Smith and other quality tackles available with less baggage, Smith has become Over play, with Washington a likely destination.

What will Mark Sanchez’s Draft Position be?

Over 10.5 (+160) – Under 10.5 (-220)

I’d wait until Saturday morning on this prop. If Stafford goes to Detroit, probably safe Seattle takes Sanchez. If those events don’t take place, watch out. Seattle could still pass on the USC signal caller even if Stafford is chosen by Lions; however this is supposed to be quarterback-driven league right?

What will Jeremy Maclin’s Draft Position be?

Over 7.5 (-140) – Under 7.5 (even)

This has to be Over, unless Al Davis is more goofy than believed. Only way this loses is if Cleveland makes late deal and moves Braylon Edwards.

What will Knowshon Moreno’s Draft Position be?

Over 21.5 (+110) – Under 21.5 (-150)

Hard to believe New Orleans, San Diego and Philadelphia would pass on the best running back coming out of college. Play Under.

What will Chris Well’s Draft Position be?

Over 15.5 (-170) – Under 15.5 (+130)

New Orleans and San Diego are the presumed destinations and if I were GM, I’d pass, because I see this guy out of the league in four years with one injury after another. Trying to wager with my head and not my heart, the Saints need a big back to compliment Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. Play Under.

What will BJ Raji’s Draft Position be?

Over 7.5 (+200) – Under 7.5 (-300)

Cleveland needs help in defensive line and Raji is perfect fit at fifth slot.

Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st?

Knowshon Moreno (Georgia) +150

Chris Wells (Ohio State) -200

Checked in with friend Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com for this prop and he offered his opinion. “I see Knowshon Moreno going ahead of Chris Wells. Moreno is quicker and more competitive than Wells, who has been sidelined too often with injuries. Moreno should go in the middle of the 1st round whereas Wells will likely be nabbed late in the round. In fact, don't be surprised if Donald Brown or LeSean McCoy goes ahead of Wells.”

Which Player Will Get Drafted 1st ?

James Laurinaitis (Ohio State) +175

Clay Matthews (USC) -250

At the beginning of the year, this might have been even bet, not anymore. Unless Detroit takes Laurinaitis at 20, a few draftniks I spoke to are no longer even sure if the Ohio State linebacker will be chosen in first round. Play Mathews.

Total SEC Players Drafted in the 1st Round

Over 7.5 (+160) – Under 7.5 (-200)

In studying the draft from several different angles, just can’t come up with the eight player to make this an Over play.

Total ACC Players Drafted in the 1st Round

Over 5 (-170) – Under 5 (+130)

The swing player seems to be Nicks from North Carolina and I believe he is picked, probably by the Giants, making this Over play.

Total Big 12 Players Drafted in the 1st Round

Over 5.5 (-135) – Under 5.5 (-105)

I have six players even if Freeman would happen to fall out of the first round. Defensive tackle Evander Hood out of Missouri looks ticketed for Indianapolis more and more. Make the move on Over.

Total Pac 10 Players Drafted in the 1st Round

Over 5.5 (-135) – Under 5.5 (-105)

Have to play Under, with the four from USC and Britton from Arizona. Centers Max Unger or Alex Mack could blow up my bet late, but I don’t believe so.

Total Big Ten Players Drafted in the 1st Round

Over 4.5 (-120) – Under 4.5 (-120)

This is easily the hardest of the conferences, with only three virtually guaranteed spots. Laurinaitis is likely and Vontae Davis has first round ability with questionable maturity. Receiver Brian Robiske could be surprise with his stock rising with particular teams. A hesitant Over play.

Patrick White (West Virginia) - Will he be Drafted on Day 1 of the Draft (Rounds 1 and 2)

Yes (-150) – No (+110)

Though many NFL teams are enamored with White’s athletic ability, his stock has fallen as first day choice from -200 to -150 in just days. With this negative trend, betting No.

NFL: Super Bowl XLIII: Looking back to look ahead
2009-02-01

Tampa Bay will host this year’s Super Bowl festivities on Sunday, as the NFL prepares to crown another champion. In no other sports game, or should I say event, are the stakes higher than they are in each winter’s Super Bowl. Of course, “stakes” is a good word to use in describing the big game, as the words gambling and Super Bowl are practically synonymous. Whether its office square pools, pull tickets, or any one of a number of various side, total, or prop possibilities, if you don’t have action on the game, you are part of a sparse minority. You can of course, get all the action you thirst for, by visiting the LIVE ODDS page from now until kickoff.

One of the big problems that presents itself each year for the Super Bowl game is the fact that the vast number of amateurs partaking in the festivities causes oddsmakers to adjust their line-setting policies accordingly. In other words, a “square” line typically becomes even more square. For example, by all set of figures that StatFox had a year ago, it was estimated that New England should have been favored by somewhere in the range of 9-10.5 points last year over the Giants. Instead, if you wanted to back the first team ever to go 16-0 in the regular season, you were forced to lay 12.5 points. Obviously this margin didn’t make a difference as New York won, but it just goes to show how things can change for this biggest of all football contests. With so much money on the line for the Super Bowl, this may be the one game each year where the HOUSE truly is looking for balanced action rather than taking a side.

The other challenge that faces bettors for the big game is that the means for successfully handicapping it change significantly from anything seen in the regular season or the playoffs up till this point. In addition to all of the normal factors that a bettor has to consider on a weekly basis, the Super Bowl offers some variation. Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a sometime overwhelming task of handicapping. With that said, it does pay off to do your homework. Nobody likes watching the game on the big screen with a know-it-all friend or family member who really didn’t prepare and is now irritable because the game isn’t unfolding as planned.

Hopefully, with all of the coverage we’re offering for Sunday’s Pittsburgh-Arizona showdown, you will at least go into the betting process a prepared and educated fan. Part of that preparation should always involve looking at the history of the game. That is what I’m here to do now, as I look back at 42 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends, and systems you’ll need to get a better feel for what this year’s contest might offer. I call it “Looking back to look ahead.”

I’ve divided the analysis into a few different sections. The first one is looking at the stats generated in past Super Bowl games and how they have reflected the outcome. If you see any not-so-obvious matchup differences that might be exploited on Sunday by the Steelers or Cardinals, perhaps the angles offered there could be the golden nuggets. The second portion is past trends and systems. How do favorites or underdogs do? Does either conference have an edge as how it relates to this year’s game? Do the team records make a difference? These are just a few of the ideas I explore. Finally, the third part recaps some of the successful overall playoff handicapping angles that will be in place for Sunday. If you need even more, there’s a handy chart of past Super Bowl games with pointspreads and stats that you can take advantage of. Enjoy the information everyone, and be sure to take in all that StatFox, the Platinum Sheet, Sportsform & CPFN have to offer this week so that you’re fully prepared to come up big on February 1st!

Super Bowl Stat Angles

The teams have studies each other for two weeks, so they know nearly everything there is to know about their opponent. The players are all professionals that have reached the sport’s pinnacle. There doesn’t figure to be any overwhelming physical mismatches. Therefore, execution proves to be the most pivotal factor in the Super Bowl, more so than any other game simply because of what is at stake. Dictionary.com defines the word “execute” as to carry out; accomplish. In football lingo, this means controlling the line of scrimmage, passing the ball efficiently, and limiting mistakes. In the Super Bowl, the team that accomplishes these goals nearly always comes out on top. Those familiar with the StatFox FoxSheets know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections.

Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that often decide who wins, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.

* Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-7 SU & 31-8-3 ATS (78.9%).

* Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 37-5 SU & 32-7-3 ATS (81.6%).

* In the 42 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just three times SU and six times ATS (84.2%). Coincidentally, the last two times it happened straight up were the Steelers’ last two world championships.

* Teams that win the time of possession battle are 31-11 SU & 29-10-3 ATS.

* Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 36-1 SU & 31-5-1 ATS. In ’08, New York ran for more yards, passed for more yards per attempt, and possessed the ball longer than New England.

* Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. For those of you intrigued, the only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots, further indicating that the Eagles’ covering the spread defied all logic.

Past Super Bowl Trends and Systems

Like most of the other major sports, the route to become a champion in the NFL has changed dramatically in recent years. I cite the turning point as Pittsburgh’s 2006 Super Bowl run in which it won four road games as the AFC’s #6 seed to emerge as champion. Since then, we’ve seen improbable sports world titles from the Miami Heat, the Colts & Giants, the Cardinals & Phillies in baseball, and Carolina in the NHL. It has seemed in recent years that the regular season has come to mean very little. This has naturally made it difficult on handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings, and past templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the playoffs.

With that caveat in place, I present the following historical Super Bowl records for various pointspread, total, and scoring scenarios.

ATS and Money Line Trends

* Favorites in the Super Bowl are 29-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-18-3 (53.8%). However, over the past seven years, the underdog owns a 5-2 ATS (71.4%) edge.

* Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium.

* The straight up winner is 34-5-3 ATS (87.2%) in the 41 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-2 ATS the past five years.

* The NFC holds a 22-20 SU and 21-18-3 (53.8%) ATS edge all time, but is just 4-7-2 ATS dating back to San Francisco’s rout win over San Diego in the ’95 game.

* The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-10-2 ATS (9.1%) in the last 13 Super Bowl games! This could be, in fact, THE golden nugget…Pittsburgh, the #2, is the higher seeded team for this year’s game.

* The team with the better record going in to the game is 27-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)

* In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.2 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.2 PPG, an average winning margin 15.0 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.

* There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…0-17 SU & ATS (0%).

* Passing for 8.0 or more yards per attempt gives teams an excellent chance in the Super Bowl. Teams that accomplish this are 22-2 SU & 17-7 ATS (70.8%).

Over/Under Trends

* There have been 45.3 total PPG scored in the Super Bowl, however, over the last four years, ALL UNDER plays, that figure has dipped to 38.3.

* Prior to Super Bowl XXXIX, OVER the total had been on a run of 14-5-1.

* The last six Super Bowl games that have had a posted total of 45 or higher have gone UNDER.

* The competiveness of the game has dictated the totals result historically. In the nine Super Bowl games that went UNDER the total, the average victory margin was 7.8 PPG. In the 14 OVER games, the average margin was a whopping 22.7 PPG. In essence, if you expect a rout this season, take the OVER, if not, go UNDER.

NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis

In continuation of the series I started a few weeks back, analyzing some statistical angles that have fared well in past playoff games and have continued to hold their ground in ’09, here are three different systems that will be in play on Sunday. If you’re wondering why the list shortened so dramatically, recall that many of the angles revealed in the wildcard, divisional, and championship rounds hinged on home/road dichotomy, and with the Super Bowl played on a neutral field, those trends don’t apply. In any case, Pittsburgh will try to capitalize on its run stuffing advantage, while Arizona will look to neutralize that edge with its prolific passing game.

• Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 53-39 ATS (57.6%).

Record in ’09: 8-2 ATS

- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Pittsburgh

• Teams that pass for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 21-15 ATS (58.3%)

Record in ’09: 3-3 ATS

- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Arizona

• Teams that pass for more yards per game on the season and are an underdog are 23-16 ATS (59.0%)

Record in ’09: 4-2 ATS

- Qualifiers for ‘09 SB: Arizona

Enjoy the action, and good luck from everyone at StatFox!

Super Bowl XLIII: Super Bowl Scuffle, A Prop Debate by Steve Makinen & Doug Upstone
2009-01-27

The “StatFox Super Bowl Scuffle” has become as big of a tradition as parties, commercials, and gambling when it comes to Super Bowl Sunday. Well, not really, but readers do seem to like it, as it is always one of the most popular pieces of the year. This year will mark the fourth edition of the Super Bowl Scuffle, in which StatFox representatives Steve Makinen and Doug Upstone debate the wide array of betting options available on Sunday. So sit back and enjoy. Perhaps the guys can help you uncover a golden nugget buried underneath the excessive options and vigorish.

We’ve taken all of the odds from Sportsbook.com, recognized as the web’s leader in game and prop betting options. All odds are considered (-110) unless noted.

StatFox (Moderator): Hello everybody, and welcome back to another edition of the StatFox Super Bowl Scuffle, the fourth edition of the popular props debate between Steve Makinen, a.k.a StatFox Steve and Doug Upstone, or StatFox Doug. Steve performs a variety of services for StatFox, not the least of which is Managing Editor of the rapidly growing weekly Platinum Sheet publication. Doug is the lead writer for StatFox.com and is an experienced sports handicapper. So, without further ado, I welcome in our distinguished contributors. Good day guys, hope you’re both getting ready for the big game!

StatFox Steve: Hey everyone, hello Douglass, my man, I trust your local Scottsdale stores are keeping the shelves stocked with Arizona Super Bowl gear (and sunscreen)? Up here in frigid Wisconsin I’m just happy I took the plunge and got myself a new snowthrower. Trust me, it’s been put to good use. Nothing breaks the winter up better than Super Bowl Sunday though. I am pumped and ready to roll…I’m sure you’re suffering from Scarlet Fever, so I hope you can take an unbiased look at this year’s game.

StatFox Doug: Steve, it has been hotter than a "cougar convention" at one of the local Scottsdale beverage establishments. While you poor folks in the Midwest and East have suffered with bitterly cold temperatures, we have have people here complaining it's too hot already, with temps 75-80 for weeks. Things have really heated up with the Bird Fever. While much of the country suffered the affects of a recession, being in the Arizona Cardinals jersey and t-shirts business takes away any feelings of a bad economy.

StatFox: Wow, yes, it’s easy to forget that Doug resides in Cardinal Country. We trust Doug will put aside any personal feeling he harbors in the pursuit of gambling happiness on Super Bowl Sunday. So let’s get to it, I’ll list the props, you guys simply tell which option you prefer and why. Best of luck to both of you.

GAME POINTSPREAD
PITTSBURGH -7
ARIZONA +7
SF Doug: I believe this was a very astute line by the oddsmakers. I can see Arizona leading into the second half, before Pittsburgh starts to rattle Kurt Warner and slow down the Cardinals offense. Though I can see Pittsburgh covering, I’ll say Arizona needs two scores, kicks the field goal to trail by six and doesn’t recover onside kick to lose.
SF Steve: Pittsburgh’s shortcomings offensively, and the fact that the better seeds have covered only one Super Bowl in the last 13 years has me leaning toward underdog Arizona here.

GAME TOTAL
OVER 46.5
UNDER 46.5
SF Steve: UNDER. In both of the last two Super Bowl games Pittsburgh has been in, the game went under the total by more than a touchdown. The reason is the pace and physical style of play. The Steelers can’t afford to have this one played any other way.
SF Doug: Between the side and total, definitely prefer to play the Over here. Pittsburgh will move the ball all day and Arizona with two weeks to prepare will have good schemes and have a few surprises. The Steelers win the Super Bowl 30-24, with the total going OVER.

FIRST-HALF LINE
PITTSBURGH -4
ARIZONA +4
SF Doug: The last five Super Bowls have been games with margin of four points or less at halftime and I don’t see that changing. Arizona plus the points.
SF Steve: Arizona +4. Typically, a team like Pittsburgh tends to wear an opponent down over the course of a game. This is the reason you don’t see many First Half Line trends favoring the Steelers when you look at the weekly FoxSheets. It’s hard to envision more than a field goal separating these teams after 30 minutes.

FIRST-HALF TOTAL
OVER 23.5 (-115)
UNDER 23.5 (-105)
SF Steve: UNDER. So far this season, Pittsburgh has scored 56% of its points after halftime, Arizona has scored 53%. Considering I’m leaning towards the UNDER for the full game, taking the OVER at the half simply doesn’t make sense.
SF Doug: I can see both coaches being aggressive wanting to establish the upper hand to get the defenses off balance and 27 points and OVER is my call.

TEAM TO RECEIVE THE OPENING KICK OFF
PITTSBURGH (+100)
ARIZONA (-130)
SF Doug: Tom Brady and the offense will start take the field at the 28-yard line, after the Giants defer to the second half.
SF Steve: ARIZONA. Pittsburgh figures to be the more likely team to defer to its defense if it wins the coin toss. There’s no way the Cardinals will do that.

WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN THE FIRST 6 MINUTES OF THE GAME
YES (-115)
NO (-115)
SF Steve: YES. I think Arizona has to try to force the issue early in this game. That will mean taking a chance with a long pass or trick play. Thus the chances for an early score are increased.
SF Doug: Yes they will and look for a trick play by either team to be an important reason as to why.

WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE IN THE LAST 2 MINUTES OF 1ST HALF
YES (-240)
NO (+180)
SF Doug: I’m going to say No. Though both quarterbacks are capable, coaches tend to be more conservative, preferring to make sure nothing bad happens rather than possibly something good.
SF Steve: NO. This is such a high price to pay, so like last year, I’m not going to fall into the assumption that there is automatically going to be a score before halftime, as it didn’t happen in either of the last two years.

SHORTEST TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME
OVER 1.5 (+110)
UNDER 1.5 (-140)
SF Steve: UNDER. This prop always gets my attention, and my logic for seemingly always taking the UNDER is the frequency of pass interference calls in the end zone that set the ball up at the 1-yard line. It isn’t the presence or lack thereof power goal-line running backs.
SF Doug: Both teams have been very good in short yardage in the playoffs, though I do not see a one-yard plunge, take the Under.

LONGEST TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME
OVER 44.5 (-115)
UNDER 44.5 (-115)
SF Doug: With Larry Fitzgerald, Santonio Holmes and even Willie Parker, a big play will happen, bet the Over.
SF Steve: UNDER. Unlike recent Super Bowl games, I don’t think these teams rely on striking the big play. In fact, Fitzgerald is probably the most capable player of beating this number and I consider him more of a possession type receiver than a burner.

TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS SCORED IN THE GAME
OVER 5.5 (+120)
UNDER 5.5 (-150)
SF Steve: UNDER 5.5. The pace of the Super Bowl has slowed in the past four years, and with Pittsburgh’s defense going to be on the field for about half the game, I’d think TD’s will again come at a premium.
SF Doug: In theory, oddsmakers are telling us the final score should be about 27-20, which suggests five touchdowns under normal circumstances. Because I have higher total score, I’ll take the Over with a total of six TDs.

LARGEST LEAD OF THE GAME
OVER 14.5 (-120)
UNDER 14.5 (+100)
SF Doug: Not a chance one team bolts to big lead. The familiarity aspect of the coaches will limit any such event, play Under.
SF Steve: UNDER. I will again point to Pittsburgh’s offensive difficulties this season as the reason why they won’t be able to separate from Arizona. On the other side, the Steelers’ defense will keep them in the game if they fall behind.

WILL THE TEAM THAT SCORES FIRST WIN THE GAME?
YES (-200)
NO (+160)
SF Doug: This used to be an automatic in the playoffs in general that the team to score first won 70 percent of the time. But like getting a meal on an airplane, those days are gone, No is the way to go.
SF Steve: NO. In this year’s playoffs, the team that scored first won just four of the 10 games if memory serves. Plus, the price associated with the NO is very attractive.

TOTAL INTERCEPTIONS THROWN BY BOTH TEAMS
OVER 2.5 (+135)
UNDER 2.5 (-170)
SF Steve: UNDER. With two Super Bowl experienced quarterbacks on the field, I don’t think either will be taking many chances. I expect a more careful performance from Roethlisberger this time around.
SF Doug: The two quarterbacks have a total of two in five games in the postseason, unless something really fluky occurs like five tipped passes or something, going Under.

WILL THERE BE A DEFENSIVE OR SPECIAL TEAMS TOUCHDOWN?
YES (+145)
NO (-175)
SF Steve: NO. I’ve learned from playing Fantasy Football that whenever you hope for this type of play it doesn’t happen. Only one of the past five Super Bowl games has had a defensive/special teams TD.
SF Doug: Neither special teams are “special” enough and Pittsburgh had its defensive moment two weeks ago, playing No.

TOTAL NET YARDS BY BOTH TEAMS
OVER 666.5 (-115)
UNDER 666.5 (-115)
SF Steve: UNDER. The StatFox Game Estimator projects 615 yards of offense in the contest. Considering I’m leaning towards a lower scoring game, and this projection is 51.5 yards shy of the prop, I’ll go UNDER.
SF Doug: Using the simplistic approach of taking the teams averages for yards gained and allowed on the season, it comes out to 622 yards. Good enough for me to play the Under.

CARDINALS - WILL THEY EVER HAVE THE LEAD VS THE STEELERS?
YES (-220)
NO (+170)
SF Doug: The Cardinals might have the lead at halftime and will actually lead at some point of the second quarter.
SF Steve: Yes. Neither team in this matchup is dominant enough where they can be expected to control the game for 60 minutes. I expect a back-and-forth contest and am willing to lay the -220 in that belief.

STEELERS - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 115.5 (-115)
UNDER 115.5 (-115)
SF Steve: UNDER. This is a strangely inflated price. Pittsburgh averages 105 RYPG, Arizona yields 105 RYPG, but just 77.3 RYPG in the playoffs. This game will come down to which team makes more plays through the air.
SF Doug: Pittsburgh has surpassed that total twice in the last six games and that was against teams with weaker run defenses. The Steelers will be close, but fall short, play Under.

CARDINALS - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 72.5 (-115)
UNDER 72.5 (-115)
SF Doug: The Cardinals have rushed the ball well in three previous playoff games and not one of those teams is even close to being the Pittsburgh. Over 60 yards probably, but 72.5, don’t think so.
SF Steve: OVER. The Cardinals running backs aren’t blessed with speed but their dedication to the run throughout the postseason suggests at least 25 or so rush attempts.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER - TOTAL PASSING YARDS
OVER 230.5 (-115)
UNDER 230.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. I think Pittsburgh needs Big Ben to come up big here, but an OVER in passing yards for him in no way guarantees success against the spread on Sunday. In fact, six of the last seven losing Super Bowl teams passed for 230 yards or more.
SF Doug: The Steelers have averaged 10.8 yards per completion and Arizona has surrendered 10.7 YPC. The oddsmakers are saying suggesting 17.5 completions for Big Ben, which is well Under this listed total doing the math.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER - TOTAL COMPLETIONS
OVER 17.5 (-115)
UNDER 17.5 (-115)
SF Doug: OVER. On the season, Pittsburgh has averaged 19 completions and should make that number again.
SF Steve: UNDER. Roethlisberger surpassed the 17-completion mark just five times during the 18-game season. His completion percentage of 59.9% doesn’t warrant it either.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER - TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES THROWN
OVER 1.5 (-155)
UNDER 1.5 (+125)
SF Doug: Throwing support to the Over, with the Cards corners overaggressive at times and Hines Ward and Heath Miller are money in the red zone.
SF Steve: OVER. A very cautious over. I envision about 2-3 touchdowns for Pittsburgh overall, and I believe it will be up to Big Ben to make these plays.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER - WILL HE THROW AN INTERCEPTION
YES (-145)
NO (+115)
SF Steve: YES. Roethlisberger’s interceptions are more a function of the pressure he has faced this year than his inaccuracy. Arizona figures to pressure him with blitz schemes as much as possible.
SF Doug: YES. Roethlisberger has been a little too clean with the ball and throws one up for grabs in the Big Game.

WILLIE PARKER - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 80.5 (-115)
UNDER 80.5 (-115)
SF Doug: This will be right up against it, however Parker goes Over because of this ability to take off on a 20-yard jaunt.
SF Steve: UNDER. With the way Arizona is stuffing the run in the postseason, it seems unlikely that Parker, and his 3.8 YPR, will surpass 80 yards.

WILLIE PARKER - WILL HE SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
YES (-115)
NO (-115)
SF Steve: NO. With just a handful or so of expected TD’s, taking anyone at even odds just doesn’t make sense.
SF Doug: I have room for another touchdown, so YES, the undrafted free agent hits paydirt.

MEWELDE MOORE - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 15.5 (-115)
UNDER 15.5 (-115)
SF Doug: Moore has four carries for 19 yards in the playoffs, what changes unless Parker is injured. Play Under.
SF Steve: OVER. I like taking change of pace players or specialists on OVER props in the Super Bowl, as I think these players are utilized more to throw a wrinkle into the game plans.

HINES WARD - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 65.5 (-115)
UNDER 65.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. Assuming Ward is at full strength on Sunday, he is Pittsburgh’s biggest playmaker. I expect this former Super Bowl MVP to again play a big role in the game. He surpassed 65.5 yards receiving eight times in Pittsburgh’s 18 games and will be counted on more than usual here.
SF Doug: Not certain if Ward’s injured knee will be 100 percent. If healthy no problem, but I see more underneath and first down catches totaling Under this figure.

HINES WARD – TOTAL RECEPTIONS
OVER 5 (+105)
UNDER 5 (-135)
SF Doug: OVER. Check Ward out of sick bay, as he makes six catches and I don’t have to pay juice!
SF Steve: YES. A big time yes if Ward is healthy. The comfort level that Roethlisberger has with Ward in unmatched on the Pittsburgh roster and he will be thrown to a lot.

SANTONIO HOLMES - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 58.5 (-115)
UNDER 58.5 (-115)
SF Steve: UNDER. Unless Holmes hits a 40+ yard play, I just don’t see him being that big of a factor as the second receiver, or third if you count Heath Miller.
SF Doug: This is a gift as Holmes is isolated on Roderick Hood and beats him twice for 20+ yards gains, plus other catches adding up to over 75 yards.

SANTONIO HOLMES – LONGEST RECEPTION
OVER 20.5 (-115)
UNDER 20.5 (-115)
SF Doug: Are you serious, Steve is Hood and I’m Holmes, Beep, Beep. Over friends.
SF Steve: UNDER. Holmes had catches of 21 yards or more in eight of 18 games. In my math, that doesn’t equate to even odds, especially in the Super Bowl, where the opposing defense is much more prepared.

HEATH MILLER - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 45.5 (-115)
UNDER 45.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. I’ll go OVER here although I believe it will be close. Miller averaged 40.9 YPG in 15 appearances overall, but 55.8 YPG over the last month. He figures to get more than average attention from Big Ben this week.
SF Doug: Go with the Over on this prop. Miller has no healthy issues, is on same page as Big Ben, and tight ends are used as safety valves more often in big games.

HEATH MILLER – TOTAL RECEPTIONS
OVER 3.5 (-105)
UNDER 3.5 (-125)
SF Doug: As tempting as this is, Miller makes three very important catches and no more, Under.
SF Steve: OVER. Miller caught 4.8 passes per game over the last month. That and my belief that Pittsburgh will have to throw to win lead me to an OVER play here.

JEFF REED – TOTAL POINTS
OVER 8.5 (+115)
UNDER 8.5 (-145)
SF Steve: UNDER. I believe eight is critical number for Reed. Once you get to the 8.5 mark, you start needing 5-6 scores to have a chance at this one. Going with the UNDER in the game, so UNDER here too.
SF Doug: If the Steelers score 30 points, that means three field goals in all likelihood and Reed goes Over comfortably.

KURT WARNER - TOTAL PASSING YARDS
OVER 255.5 (-115)
UNDER 255.5 (-115)
SF Doug: Only Philip Rivers surpassed this number all season against Pitt defense in the Divisional Round, thanks to 62 yard pass and run by Darren Sproles late in the game. Arizona can throw the pigskin, but 94 yards over season average for No. 1 pass defense, don’t think so.
SF Steve: UNDER. While I believe Warner will play well on Sunday, I can’t look past the fact that only one quarterback surpassed 255.5 yards passing on Pittsburgh this year.

KURT WARNER - TOTAL COMPLETIONS
OVER 23.5 (-115)
UNDER 23.5 (-115)
SF Steve: UNDER. It takes a lot to complete 24 passes in a game. Even if Warner does attempt 40, which I don’t think he will, hitting 60% on a team that pressures the QB like Pittsburgh is difficult.
SF Doug: Warner has averaged just over 20 completions in the playoffs, nevertheless, with Arizona trailing in the fourth quarter will have to throw the ball and settles at 25.

KURT WARNER - TOTAL TOUCHDOWN PASSES THROWN
OVER 1.5 (-145)
UNDER 1.5 (+115)
SF Steve: OVER. As steep as the price is on this prop, Fitzgerald is on such a roll that he & Warner could beat this prop with no other help.
SF Doug: Put me down for three touchdowns for the former World League and Arena quarterback. You don’t think he’d have the same impact on the Super Bowl, nah, that’s just crazy. Over.

KURT WARNER - WILL HE THROW AN INTERCEPTION
YES (-220)
NO (+170)
SF Doug: He might even throw two, but the first one will come on throwing the ball up for grabs trying to elude James Harrison.
SF Steve: No. Pittsburgh has been as opportunistic as it has been strong on defense. However, Warner seems to have gotten over his shaky ways under pressure this season and +170 is a nice price.

EDGERRIN JAMES - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 42.5 (-130)
UNDER 42.5 (+100)
SF Doug: No doubt James would love to win a ring, but let’s not kid ourselves, he’s looking for his next stop and wants to prove he’s still worth a good salary as starting running back. Play Over.
SF Steve: OVER. Oddsmakers are giving Pittsburgh a ton of credit here. James rushed for 75.8 YPG over the last four, and Arizona has found a rededication to the ground game in the playoffs.

EDGERRIN JAMES - WILL HE SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
YES (+300)
NO (-400)
SF Steve: NO. Although I won’t play this myself because of the excessive vig, I just don’t believe there will be that many touchdowns to go around, and in my opinion, there’s a better chance they’ll come through the air.
SF Doug: It’s a heavy price, but James only goes into the end zone during warm-ups.

TIM HIGHTOWER - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS
OVER 20.5 (-115)
UNDER 20.5 (-115)
SF Doug: He’ll be more useful catching than running it, Play Under.
SF Steve: OVER. Hightower has averaged 11.3 carries per game in the postseason. I don’t see Arizona changing from that recipe unless they get down big early.

J.J. ARRINGTON - TOTAL RUSHING PLUS RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 16.5 (-115)
UNDER 16.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. Yes, it is true, I am going OVER for all three Arizona running backs. I don’t think oddsmakers have taken the last three weeks Cardinals’ game into enough consideration. Plus, Arrington is the speed back that Arizona will need to mix it up.
SF Doug: Arrington will be more bundled up than an out-of-towner thinking the Grand Canyon was a warm weather stop in Arizona this time of year. Taking the Under.

LARRY FITZGERALD - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 95.5 (-115)
UNDER 95.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. It isn’t often that players get on as much of a roll has Fitzgerald has. It reminds me a lot the Jerry Rice or Terrell Owens situations in past Super Bowls. He will be thrown to early and often. For good reason, he is the best WR in the NFL right now.
SF Doug: I’ve never heard if Fitzgerald has a nickname, but Crazy Glue would work as everything he touches sticks. He’s on fire right now, you have to respect the Over.

LARRY FITZGERALD – TOTAL RECEPTIONS
OVER 6.5 (-115)
UNDER 6.5 (-115)
SF Doug: Unless Fitzgerald gets hurt or Anquan Boldin decides to run the same exact routes, this has to go Over.
SF Steve: OVER. I’m not convinced that Fitzgerald will be able to hit any real big plays, but I do believe he will be targeted at least a dozen times.

LARRY FITZGERALD – WILL HE SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
YES (-115)
NO (-115)
SF Doug: This is a safer bet than Steve being on the wrong side of the side or total of the XLIII. Yes.
SF Steve: YES. Every time Arizona gets in the red zone this is going to be a threat with the way Fitzgerald has dominated the playoffs. Pittsburgh’s corners can’t match him.

ANQUAN BOLDIN - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 68.5 (-115)
UNDER 68.5 (-115)
SF Steve: UNDER. Warner just doesn’t seem to have the same repoirte with Boldin now as he does with Fitzgerald. The former’s sideline outburst isn’t going to help either.
SF Doug: Like Anquan said about his outburst during Arizona’s winning drive against Philly, it will be no big deal when he goes Under the total. (Then it will be a BIG deal)

ANQUAN BOLDIN – TOTAL RECEPTIONS
OVER 5.5 (-130)
UNDER 5.5 (+100)
SF Doug: I can see Boldin totaling five of Warner’s tosses, no more, Under.
SF Steve: UNDER. I love the +100 line on this one as well as the lofty number of 5.5. I truly believe this is Boldin’s last game with Arizona. I don’t see him going out big.

ANQUAN BOLDIN – LONGEST RECEPTION
OVER 18.5 (-115)
UNDER 18.5 (-115)
SF Doug: Only way Boldin goes past this figure is with a calculator, punching times (X) 2.
SF Steve: UNDER. I’ll go with the trifecta under on Boldin. Many of his big yardage plays come on runs after the catch. Pittsburgh tackles much better than the NFC West.

STEVE BREASTON - TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS
OVER 40.5 (-115)
UNDER 40.5 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. Breaston is the one receiver on Arizona that can beat Pittsburgh with speed. I expect him to be targeted on deep balls at least a couple of times in this game. One hit and this goes over. It’s easy to forget that this guy had 1,006 yards in the regular season.
SF Doug: This is among my favorites, since I think Pittsburgh will focus on the main guns of Fitzgerald and Boldin. I see Breaston having upwards of 70 or more yards, surpassing Boldin easily.

NEIL RACKERS - TOTAL POINTS
OVER 7 (-115)
UNDER 7 (-115)
SF Steve: OVER. I’m targeting about 20-23 points for Arizona in this game and not all the scores will be TD’s. Two FG’s puts you in a comfortable spot.
SF Doug: My math calls for six and no more and I’ll even throw in a missed field at no extra charge.

PITTSBURGH - ADJUSTED LINES
-3.5 (-160)
-10.5 (+125)
-14.5 (+210)
-17.5 (+300)
-21.5 (+450)
+3.5 (-400)
+7.5 (-800)
+10.5 (-1100)
SF Steve: -10.5 (+125). Searching purely from a value standpoint, laying the 10.5 at +125 would seem to be the best play on this list if you’re backing the Steelers.
SF Doug: Taking the +10.5 is crazy stupid based on the risk/reward ratio, thus laying -3.5 is within my wheelhouse.

ARIZONA - ADJUSTED LINES
+3.5 (+130)
+10.5 (-155)
+14.5 (-280)
+17.5 (-400)
+21.5 (-700)
-3.5 (+300)
-7.5 (+500)
-10.5 (+650)
SF Doug: A blowout just looks unrealistic, taking the +17.5 points at 1-4 odds is something I could live with.
SF Steve: +3.5 (+130). I’d probably be willing to lay the 3.5 points with the Cardinals seeing as how the Super Bowl has gone in recent years. However, I think the +3.5 would seem to make the most sense.

TOTAL POINTS - ADJUSTED TOTALS
OVER 38.5 (-320)
UNDER 38.5 (+240)
OVER 41.5 (-200)
UNDER 41.5 (+160)
OVER 52.5 (+170)
UNDER 52.5 (-220)
OVER 59.5 (+325)
UNDER 59.5 (-450)
SF Steve: UNDER 41.5 (+160). In truth, I’m of the believe that the 46.5 point total is inflated by at least 3 points, considering one of the NFL’s best defenses in history is playing. I will actually play this one myself – UNDER 41.5, getting the +160.
SF Doug: I see more points, not less because of the quarterbacks, playmakers and coaches. The Over 52.5 has a nice payout and fits my 30-24 outcome to a tee.

SUPER BOWL XLIII MVP
Adrian Wilson (Cardinals) +5000
Anquan Boldin (Cardinals) +1500
Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) +175
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Cardinals) +4000
Edgerrin James (Cardinals) +1500
Heath Miller (Steelers) +3000
Hines Ward (Steelers) +1500
James Farrior (Steelers) +3000
James Harrison (Steelers) +3000
Karlos Dansby (Cardinals) +5000
Kurt Warner (Cardinals) +250
Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals) +500
Nate Washington (Steelers) +4000
Santonio Holmes (Steelers) +1500
Steve Breaston (Cardinals) +4000
Tim Hightower (Cardinals) +1800
Troy Polamalu (Steelers) +1000
Willie Parker (Steelers) +700
xz Field (Any Other Player) +800
SF Steve: FITZGERALD +500 or POLAMALU +1000. There are two dominant players in this game and both are capable of overtaking the QB’s for MVP honors. Depends who wins.
SF Doug: I’m going with the longshot. Since I started looking at this matchup, Santonio Holmes has been like a recurring dream in terms of big plays. Awesome payout if Big Ben gets him the ball in stride.

MARGIN OF VICTORY
Cardinals Win By 01-03 pts +600
Cardinals Win By 04-07 pts +800
Cardinals Win By 08-11 pts +1800
Cardinals Win By 12-15 pts +2500
Cardinals Win By 16-19 pts +5000
Cardinals Win By 20-23 pts +5000
Cardinals Win By 24-27 pts +7500
Cardinals Win By 28-31 pts +7500
Cardinals Win By 32-35 pts +7500
Cardinals Win By 36-39 pts +10000
Cardinals Win By 40 or more +10000
Steelers Win By 01-03 pts +500
Steelers Win By 04-07 pts +400
Steelers Win By 08-11 pts +500
Steelers Win By 12-15 pts +600
Steelers Win By 16-19 pts +1200
Steelers Win By 20-23 pts +1500
Steelers Win By 24-27 pts +1500
Steelers Win By 28-31 pts +2000
Steelers Win By 32-35 pts +3000
Steelers Win By 36-39 pts +4000
Steelers Win By 40 or more +4000
SF Steve: The days of the favorite winning straight up and being an automatic cover in the Super Bowl are over. As such, I’ll take both teams to win in the 01-03 point range, Arizona at +600, Pittsburgh at +500.
SF Doug: Same message as last year, bettors make money by acquiring steady growth, not chasing longshots (I actually do like Holmes above). Backing Pittsburgh to win by 4-7 points. Boring yes, prudent no doubt.

NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
2009-01-15

Here is a list of NFL playoff trends that have proven successful to follow or fade in recent years. All of these angles reflect the teams’ current statistics, including the playoff games of ’09. The records for the ’09 playoffs of each angle are also given along with the qualifying teams for this week’s games.

Keep in mind that these are purely raw stat based angles and don’t take into account any other betting scenarios, such as line range, situational factors, or experience. Using various stats, here are 18 different playoff betting trends that have produced either better than 55% or worse than 45% results.

Scoring
• Home teams scoring 26.0 PPG or more are just 14-21 ATS (40%)
Record in ’09: 2-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona
• Home teams allowing less than 17 PPG are 22-17 ATS (56.4%)
Record in ’09: 1-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Pittsburgh
• Road teams allowing less than 17 PPG are 19-11 ATS (63.3%)
Record in ’09: 2-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
• Home teams outscoring their opponents by less than 5.0 PPG on the season are 8-14 ATS (36.4%)
Record in ’09: 1-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona

Rushing Stats
• Teams that run for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 25-19 ATS (56.8%)
Record in ’09: 1-3 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
• Home teams that average 106 RYPG or less are 15-5 ATS (75.0%)
Record in ’09: 2-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona, Pittsburgh
• Road teams that average 136 RYPG or more are 13-10 ATS (56.5%)
Record in ’09: 2-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore
• Teams that allow fewer rushing yards per attempt on the season are 52-38 ATS (57.8%).
Record in ’09: 7-1 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Pittsburgh, Philadelphia
• Road teams that allow 3.90 YPR or fewer are 27-11 ATS (71.1%)
Record in ’09: 3-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
• Road teams that allow fewer than 100.0 RYPG are 25-14 ATS (64.1%)
Record in ’09: 4-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia

Passing Stats
• Teams that pass for more yards per attempt on the season and are an underdog are 20-15 ATS (57.1%)
Record in ’09: 2-3 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona
• Home teams that gain more than 7.40 yards per pass attempt or more on the season are just 9-17 ATS (34.6%)
Record in ’09: 2-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Arizona
• Teams that pass for more yards per game on the season and are an underdog are 22-16 ATS (57.9%)
Record in ’09: 3-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Arizona
• Home teams that allow 192.0 PYPG or fewer are 11-16 ATS (40.7%)
Record in ’09: 1-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Pittsburgh

Yards Per Play Stats
• Road teams that yield 4.90 yards per play or fewer on defense are 17-5 ATS (77.2%)
Record in ’09: 4-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia
• Home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.00 or more yards per play are just 2-9 ATS (18.2%)
Record in ’09: 1-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: AGAINST Pittsburgh
• Road teams outgaining their opponents by 0.25 or more yards per play on the season are 15-7 ATS (68.2%)
Record in ’09: 5-2 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore, Philadelphia

Turnover Stats
• Road teams that enjoyed a turnover differential of more than +1.00 per game on the season are 8-2 ATS (80%)
Record in ’09: 0-0 ATS
- Qualifiers for ‘09 CC: Baltimore